Models
INDIAN OIL CORP LTDIOCPetroleum Products
₹357per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹357implied FY26 P/E 14.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.2×
Against CMP ₹135.11+164.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(19.8)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹255₹561
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹130₹189
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,49,004 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,85,708 |
| Enterprise value | 6,34,713 |
| less net debt | (1,29,989) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,04,724 |
| ÷ 1,412.12 crore shares | ₹357 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 372 | 407 | 448 | 498 | 561 |
| 10.50% | 336 | 365 | 398 | 439 | 488 |
| 11.00% | 305 | 329 | 357 | 390 | 430 |
| 11.50% | 279 | 299 | 323 | 350 | 383 |
| 12.00% | 255 | 273 | 293 | 316 | 343 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹135.11; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 271 · 353 · 455 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,51,410 | 8,81,235 | 8,59,363 | 9,01,453 | 9,46,525 | 9,93,852 | 10,43,544 | 10,95,721 | 11,50,507 |
| growth % | 29.1 | (7.4) | (2.5) | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 30,699 | 75,591 | 37,829 | 77,062 | 80,455 | 84,477 | 88,701 | 93,136 | 97,793 |
| margin % | 3.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| less depreciation | (13,181) | (15,866) | (16,777) | (18,420) | (18,931) | (19,877) | (20,871) | (21,914) | (23,010) |
| EBIT | 17,518 | 59,725 | 21,051 | 58,641 | 61,524 | 64,600 | 67,830 | 71,222 | 74,783 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14,836) | (15,566) | (16,344) | (17,161) | (18,019) | (18,920) | |||
| NOPAT | 43,805 | 45,959 | 48,256 | 50,669 | 53,203 | 55,863 | |||
| add depreciation | 13,181 | 15,866 | 16,777 | 18,420 | 18,931 | 19,877 | 20,871 | 21,914 | 23,010 |
| less capex | (32,600) | (37,175) | (34,850) | (28,363) | (29,342) | (29,070) | (28,697) | (28,215) | (27,612) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3,696) | (3,881) | (4,075) | (4,279) | (4,492) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (2,956) | 33,923 | (151) | — | 31,851 | 35,183 | 38,768 | 42,624 | 46,768 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 30,231 | 30,085 | 29,865 | 29,582 | 29,241 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,31,822, dividends at 32.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 58,641 | 61,524 | 64,600 | 67,830 | 71,222 | 74,783 |
| Interest at 5.8% on debt | (7,646) | (7,646) | (7,646) | (7,646) | (7,646) | |
| Profit before tax | 53,878 | 56,955 | 60,185 | 63,576 | 67,137 | |
| Profit after tax | 42,096 | 40,247 | 42,545 | 44,958 | 47,491 | 50,152 |
| Dividends | (13,702) | (13,121) | (13,870) | (14,656) | (15,482) | (16,349) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,833 | 14,852 | 30,453 | 48,854 | 70,284 | 94,992 |
| Working capital | 74,339 | 78,035 | 81,916 | 85,990 | 90,269 | 94,761 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,52,783 | 4,63,195 | 4,72,388 | 4,80,214 | 4,86,515 | 4,91,117 |
| Debt | 1,31,822 | 1,31,822 | 1,31,822 | 1,31,822 | 1,31,822 | 1,31,822 |
| Equity | 2,25,547 | 2,52,674 | 2,81,349 | 3,11,651 | 3,43,660 | 3,77,462 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 55,482 | 58,541 | 61,754 | 65,127 | 68,669 | |
| Investing (capex) | (29,342) | (29,070) | (28,697) | (28,215) | (27,612) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (13,121) | (13,870) | (14,656) | (15,482) | (16,349) | |
| Net change in cash | 13,019 | 15,602 | 18,400 | 21,430 | 24,708 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 26,139 | 29,471 | 33,057 | 36,912 | 41,057 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 8.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹357 | 164.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.