Models
INDIAN RAIL TOUR CORP LTDIRCTCLeisure Services
₹320per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹320implied FY26 P/E 18.4× · EV/EBITDA 15.0×
Against CMP ₹463.70−31.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies23.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹248₹464
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹467₹739
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,758 |
| PV of terminal value | 19,440 |
| Enterprise value | 25,198 |
| less net debt | 412 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 25,610 |
| ÷ 80.00 crore shares | ₹320 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 331 | 355 | 384 | 419 | 464 |
| 10.50% | 305 | 325 | 349 | 378 | 412 |
| 11.00% | 283 | 300 | 320 | 343 | 371 |
| 11.50% | 265 | 279 | 296 | 315 | 338 |
| 12.00% | 248 | 261 | 275 | 291 | 310 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹463.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 264 · 318 · 384 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,270 | 4,675 | 5,215 | 5,815 | 6,483 | 7,229 | 8,060 | 8,987 |
| growth % | — | 9.5 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,407 | 1,598 | 1,683 | 1,878 | 2,094 | 2,335 | 2,603 | 2,903 |
| margin % | 33.0 | 34.2 | 32.3 | 32.3 | 32.3 | 32.3 | 32.3 | 32.3 |
| less depreciation | (57) | (53) | (50) | (58) | (65) | (72) | (81) | (90) |
| EBIT | 1,350 | 1,545 | 1,633 | 1,820 | 2,029 | 2,263 | 2,523 | 2,813 |
| less tax on EBIT | (420) | (468) | (522) | (581) | (648) | (723) | ||
| NOPAT | 1,213 | 1,352 | 1,508 | 1,681 | 1,874 | 2,090 | ||
| add depreciation | 57 | 53 | 50 | 58 | 65 | 72 | 81 | 90 |
| less capex | (232) | (48) | (78) | (87) | (92) | (98) | (103) | (108) |
| less working-capital build | — | (130) | (144) | (161) | (180) | (200) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 650 | 762 | — | 1,194 | 1,336 | 1,495 | 1,673 | 1,872 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 1,133 | 1,142 | 1,152 | 1,161 | 1,170 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,633 | 1,820 | 2,029 | 2,263 | 2,523 | 2,813 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,820 | 2,029 | 2,263 | 2,523 | 2,813 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 1,352 | 1,508 | 1,681 | 1,874 | 2,090 |
| Dividends | (760) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 412 | 1,606 | 2,941 | 4,436 | 6,109 | 7,981 |
| Working capital | 1,129 | 1,258 | 1,403 | 1,564 | 1,743 | 1,943 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,039 | 6,068 | 6,095 | 6,121 | 6,143 | 6,161 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 4,309 | 5,661 | 7,169 | 8,850 | 10,724 | 12,814 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,281 | 1,428 | 1,592 | 1,775 | 1,980 | |
| Investing (capex) | (87) | (92) | (98) | (103) | (108) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1,194 | 1,336 | 1,495 | 1,673 | 1,872 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,194 | 1,336 | 1,495 | 1,673 | 1,872 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 32.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹320 | (31.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.