Models
INDIAN TONERS & DEVELOPERS LTDBSE 523586Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹520per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹520implied FY22 P/E 20.6× · EV/EBITDA 20.7×
Against CMP ₹46.99+1005.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2784%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹396₹767
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹44₹62
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY23–FY27 free cash flow | 83 |
| PV of terminal value | 437 |
| Enterprise value | 520 |
| less net debt | 20 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 540 |
| ÷ 1.04 crore shares | ₹520 |
84% of the value sits after FY27. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 537 | 579 | 629 | 691 | 767 |
| 10.50% | 493 | 528 | 569 | 619 | 679 |
| 11.00% | 456 | 485 | 520 | 560 | 608 |
| 11.50% | 424 | 449 | 478 | 511 | 551 |
| 12.00% | 396 | 417 | 442 | 470 | 503 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹46.99; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 390 · 512 · 680 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 115 | 92 | 89 | 120 | 155 | 202 | 263 | 342 | 444 |
| growth % | — | (20.6) | (2.9) | 34.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 23 | 12 | 15 | 25 | 33 | 42 | 55 | 72 | 93 |
| margin % | 19.6 | 13.2 | 17.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (16) |
| EBIT | 19 | 8 | 11 | 21 | 27 | 35 | 46 | 60 | 78 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (11) | (14) | |||
| NOPAT | 17 | 22 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 |
| less capex | — | — | (0) | (9) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (17) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (8) | (11) | (14) | (19) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | — | 18 | — | 9 | 14 | 20 | 29 | 42 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 9 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 26 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 21 | 27 | 35 | 46 | 60 | 78 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 27 | 35 | 46 | 60 | 78 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 22 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 |
| Dividends | (7) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 20 | 29 | 43 | 64 | 93 | 135 |
| Working capital | 22 | 28 | 37 | 48 | 62 | 81 |
| Net block and other assets | 146 | 153 | 159 | 165 | 171 | 174 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 165 | 188 | 217 | 254 | 304 | 367 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 21 | 28 | 36 | 47 | 61 | |
| Investing (capex) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (17) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 9 | 14 | 20 | 29 | 42 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 9 | 14 | 20 | 29 | 42 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY22 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 21% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹520 | 1005.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.