Models
INDIGO PAINTS LIMITEDINDIGOPNTSConsumer Durables
₹408per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹408implied FY26 P/E 12.1× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹1,083.60−62.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹312₹599
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹708₹1,346
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 373 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,541 |
| Enterprise value | 1,914 |
| less net debt | 30 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,944 |
| ÷ 4.77 crore shares | ₹408 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 422 | 454 | 492 | 540 | 599 |
| 10.50% | 388 | 415 | 446 | 484 | 531 |
| 11.00% | 359 | 381 | 408 | 439 | 476 |
| 11.50% | 334 | 353 | 375 | 401 | 432 |
| 12.00% | 312 | 329 | 348 | 369 | 395 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,083.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 326 · 404 · 499 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,306 | 1,341 | 1,405 | 1,475 | 1,549 | 1,626 | 1,708 | 1,793 |
| growth % | — | 2.6 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 238 | 233 | 249 | 261 | 274 | 288 | 302 | 317 |
| margin % | 18.2 | 17.4 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 |
| less depreciation | (52) | (59) | (60) | (63) | (67) | (70) | (73) | (77) |
| EBIT | 186 | 175 | 188 | 198 | 208 | 218 | 229 | 240 |
| less tax on EBIT | (48) | (51) | (53) | (56) | (59) | (62) | ||
| NOPAT | 140 | 147 | 154 | 162 | 170 | 179 | ||
| add depreciation | 52 | 59 | 60 | 63 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 77 |
| less capex | (104) | (136) | (135) | (142) | (132) | (120) | (107) | (93) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (13) | (14) | (14) | (15) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 47 | 69 | — | 57 | 77 | 99 | 122 | 148 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 54 | 66 | 76 | 85 | 93 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2, dividends at 11.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 188 | 198 | 208 | 218 | 229 | 240 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 198 | 207 | 218 | 229 | 240 | |
| Profit after tax | 148 | 147 | 154 | 162 | 170 | 179 |
| Dividends | (17) | (17) | (17) | (18) | (19) | (20) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 32 | 72 | 131 | 211 | 314 | 442 |
| Working capital | 246 | 258 | 271 | 284 | 299 | 314 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,351 | 1,429 | 1,494 | 1,544 | 1,578 | 1,593 |
| Debt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Equity | 1,153 | 1,284 | 1,420 | 1,564 | 1,715 | 1,874 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 198 | 208 | 218 | 229 | 241 | |
| Investing (capex) | (142) | (132) | (120) | (107) | (93) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (17) | (18) | (19) | (20) | |
| Net change in cash | 40 | 59 | 80 | 103 | 128 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 56 | 77 | 98 | 122 | 148 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 17.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹408 | (62.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.