₹74per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹74implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 2.0×
Against CMP ₹201.51−63.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies44.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3138%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹64₹94
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹131₹244
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,116 |
| PV of terminal value | 676 |
| Enterprise value | 1,792 |
| less net debt | (218) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,574 |
| ÷ 21.20 crore shares | ₹74 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 76 | 79 | 83 | 88 | 94 |
| 10.50% | 73 | 75 | 78 | 82 | 87 |
| 11.00% | 69 | 72 | 74 | 77 | 81 |
| 11.50% | 67 | 69 | 71 | 73 | 76 |
| 12.00% | 64 | 66 | 68 | 70 | 72 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹201.51; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 9 · 73 · 136 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.99 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.07 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,451 | 1,567 | 1,692 | 1,828 | 1,974 | 2,132 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 881 | 951 | 1,027 | 1,109 | 1,198 | 1,294 |
| margin % | 60.7 | 60.7 | 60.7 | 60.7 | 60.7 | 60.7 |
| less depreciation | (645) | (697) | (753) | (813) | (878) | (949) |
| EBIT | 236 | 254 | 274 | 296 | 320 | 345 |
| less tax on EBIT | (59) | (64) | (69) | (75) | (80) | (87) |
| NOPAT | 177 | 190 | 205 | 222 | 239 | 258 |
| add depreciation | 645 | 697 | 753 | 813 | 878 | 949 |
| less capex | (414) | (447) | (588) | (748) | (931) | (1,138) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 438 | 368 | 283 | 183 | 65 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 416 | 314 | 218 | 127 | 41 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 290, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 236 | 254 | 274 | 296 | 320 | 345 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | |
| Profit before tax | 231 | 251 | 273 | 297 | 322 | |
| Profit after tax | (106) | 173 | 188 | 204 | 222 | 241 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 72 | 493 | 843 | 1,109 | 1,275 | 1,323 |
| Working capital | 34 | 36 | 39 | 42 | 46 | 49 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,405 | 6,155 | 5,989 | 5,924 | 5,977 | 6,167 |
| Debt | 290 | 290 | 290 | 290 | 290 | 290 |
| Equity | 515 | 687 | 875 | 1,079 | 1,301 | 1,542 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 867 | 938 | 1,014 | 1,097 | 1,186 | |
| Investing (capex) | (447) | (588) | (748) | (931) | (1,138) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 421 | 350 | 266 | 166 | 48 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 421 | 350 | 266 | 166 | 48 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 60.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹74 | (63.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.