₹71per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹71implied FY26 P/E 6.5× · EV/EBITDA 6.7×
Against CMP ₹127.95−44.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3188%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹42₹130
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹82₹149
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 102 |
| PV of terminal value | 721 |
| Enterprise value | 822 |
| less net debt | (304) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 518 |
| ÷ 7.26 crore shares | ₹71 |
88% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 75 | 85 | 97 | 112 | 130 |
| 10.50% | 65 | 73 | 83 | 95 | 109 |
| 11.00% | 56 | 63 | 71 | 81 | 92 |
| 11.50% | 49 | 55 | 62 | 69 | 79 |
| 12.00% | 42 | 47 | 53 | 60 | 68 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹127.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 42 · 71 · 102 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 945 | 944 | 1,079 | 1,160 | 1,247 | 1,340 | 1,441 | 1,549 | 1,665 |
| growth % | 20.2 | (0.1) | 14.3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 87 | 79 | 101 | 123 | 132 | 142 | 153 | 164 | 176 |
| margin % | 9.2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| less depreciation | (17) | (15) | (17) | (21) | (24) | (25) | (27) | (29) | (32) |
| EBIT | 70 | 64 | 84 | 101 | 108 | 117 | 125 | 135 | 145 |
| less tax on EBIT | (26) | (27) | (29) | (32) | (34) | (37) | |||
| NOPAT | 76 | 81 | 87 | 94 | 101 | 108 | |||
| add depreciation | 17 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 32 |
| less capex | (31) | (31) | (91) | (78) | (85) | (76) | (65) | (53) | (38) |
| less working-capital build | — | (24) | (26) | (28) | (30) | (33) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (11) | 39 | (0) | — | (4) | 10 | 27 | 47 | 69 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (4) | 9 | 21 | 33 | 43 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 311, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 101 | 108 | 117 | 125 | 135 | 145 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | |
| Profit before tax | 84 | 92 | 100 | 110 | 120 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 63 | 69 | 75 | 82 | 90 |
| Dividends | (4) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | (16) | (25) | (16) | 13 | 63 |
| Working capital | 326 | 351 | 377 | 405 | 436 | 468 |
| Net block and other assets | 565 | 626 | 676 | 714 | 738 | 744 |
| Debt | 311 | 311 | 311 | 311 | 311 | 311 |
| Equity | 394 | 456 | 525 | 600 | 682 | 772 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 62 | 68 | 74 | 81 | 89 | |
| Investing (capex) | (85) | (76) | (65) | (53) | (38) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (23) | (8) | 9 | 28 | 51 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (23) | (8) | 9 | 28 | 51 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 10.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹71 | (44.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.