Models
INDO COUNT INDUSTRIES LTDICILTextiles & Apparels
₹57per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹57implied FY26 P/E 7.5× · EV/EBITDA 5.3×
Against CMP ₹442.15−87.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹34₹103
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹217₹475
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 548 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,541 |
| Enterprise value | 2,089 |
| less net debt | (960) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,129 |
| ÷ 19.81 crore shares | ₹57 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 60 | 68 | 77 | 89 | 103 |
| 10.50% | 52 | 59 | 66 | 75 | 87 |
| 11.00% | 45 | 51 | 57 | 64 | 73 |
| 11.50% | 39 | 44 | 49 | 55 | 63 |
| 12.00% | 34 | 38 | 42 | 48 | 54 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹442.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 33 · 57 · 84 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,012 | 3,557 | 4,151 | 4,141 | 4,141 | 4,141 | 4,141 | 4,141 | 4,141 |
| growth % | 6.0 | 18.1 | 16.7 | (0.2) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | 454 | 559 | 534 | 392 | 393 | 393 | 393 | 393 | 393 |
| margin % | 15.1 | 15.7 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| less depreciation | (65) | (83) | (117) | (159) | (157) | (157) | (157) | (157) | (157) |
| EBIT | 390 | 476 | 417 | 233 | 236 | 236 | 236 | 236 | 236 |
| less tax on EBIT | (55) | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | |||
| NOPAT | 177 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | |||
| add depreciation | 65 | 83 | 117 | 159 | 157 | 157 | 157 | 157 | 157 |
| less capex | 0 | (135) | (252) | (202) | (203) | (199) | (196) | (192) | (189) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 767 | 11 | 143 | — | 134 | 138 | 141 | 145 | 148 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 127 | 118 | 109 | 101 | 93 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,074, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 233 | 236 | 236 | 236 | 236 | 236 |
| Interest at 11.9% on debt | (128) | (128) | (128) | (128) | (128) | |
| Profit before tax | 108 | 108 | 108 | 108 | 108 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 |
| Dividends | (40) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 114 | 151 | 191 | 235 | 283 | 334 |
| Working capital | 1,392 | 1,392 | 1,392 | 1,392 | 1,392 | 1,392 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,986 | 3,032 | 3,074 | 3,112 | 3,147 | 3,179 |
| Debt | 1,074 | 1,074 | 1,074 | 1,074 | 1,074 | 1,074 |
| Equity | 2,355 | 2,438 | 2,520 | 2,603 | 2,685 | 2,768 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | |
| Investing (capex) | (203) | (199) | (196) | (192) | (189) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 37 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 51 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 37 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 51 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0% | 9.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹57 | (87.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.