Models
INDO THAI SEC LTDINDOTHAICapital Markets
₹247per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹247implied FY26 P/E 45.2× · EV/EBITDA 37.2×
Against CMP ₹41.17+500.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(13.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹187₹366
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹34₹466
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 585 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,614 |
| Enterprise value | 3,199 |
| less net debt | 3 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,202 |
| ÷ 12.96 crore shares | ₹247 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 256 | 276 | 300 | 329 | 366 |
| 10.50% | 235 | 251 | 271 | 295 | 324 |
| 11.00% | 217 | 231 | 247 | 266 | 290 |
| 11.50% | 201 | 213 | 227 | 243 | 262 |
| 12.00% | 187 | 198 | 210 | 223 | 239 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹41.17; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 178 · 246 · 333 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8 | 31 | 26 | 104 | 135 | 175 | 228 | 296 | 385 |
| growth % | (61.7) | 313.8 | (15.8) | 294.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (9) | 20 | 11 | 86 | 112 | 145 | 189 | 246 | 320 |
| margin % | (116.6) | 64.6 | 42.9 | 82.9 | 82.9 | 82.9 | 82.9 | 82.9 | 82.9 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | (9) | 20 | 11 | 85 | 111 | 144 | 188 | 244 | 317 |
| less tax on EBIT | (18) | (23) | (30) | (38) | (50) | (65) | |||
| NOPAT | 68 | 88 | 115 | 149 | 194 | 252 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (0) | (2) | (0) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1 | (5) | (22) | — | 87 | 113 | 148 | 193 | 252 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 83 | 97 | 114 | 134 | 157 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 85 | 111 | 144 | 188 | 244 | 317 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 111 | 144 | 188 | 244 | 317 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 88 | 115 | 149 | 194 | 252 |
| Dividends | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 90 | 204 | 352 | 545 | 796 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 371 | 372 | 374 | 375 | 376 | 376 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 287 | 375 | 490 | 639 | 833 | 1,085 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 89 | 116 | 151 | 196 | 255 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 87 | 113 | 148 | 193 | 252 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 87 | 113 | 148 | 193 | 252 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 82.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹247 | 500.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.