Models
INDRAPRASTHA GAS LTDIGLGas
₹116per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹116implied FY26 P/E 11.9× · EV/EBITDA 8.7×
Against CMP ₹151.75−23.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies14.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹87₹173
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹142₹224
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,482 |
| PV of terminal value | 13,603 |
| Enterprise value | 16,085 |
| less net debt | 143 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 16,228 |
| ÷ 140.00 crore shares | ₹116 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 120 | 130 | 141 | 155 | 173 |
| 10.50% | 110 | 118 | 127 | 139 | 153 |
| 11.00% | 101 | 108 | 116 | 125 | 136 |
| 11.50% | 94 | 100 | 106 | 114 | 123 |
| 12.00% | 87 | 92 | 98 | 104 | 112 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹151.75; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 91 · 115 · 144 |
| Draws below the CMP | 94% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15,603 | 15,457 | 16,467 | 17,846 | 19,363 | 21,009 | 22,795 | 24,732 | 26,835 |
| growth % | 83.9 | (0.9) | 6.5 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 2,040 | 2,364 | 1,973 | 1,844 | 1,994 | 2,164 | 2,348 | 2,547 | 2,764 |
| margin % | 13.1 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| less depreciation | (363) | (414) | (476) | (518) | (562) | (609) | (661) | (717) | (778) |
| EBIT | 1,676 | 1,950 | 1,497 | 1,326 | 1,433 | 1,555 | 1,687 | 1,830 | 1,986 |
| less tax on EBIT | (347) | (375) | (407) | (442) | (480) | (520) | |||
| NOPAT | 979 | 1,057 | 1,147 | 1,245 | 1,351 | 1,465 | |||
| add depreciation | 363 | 414 | 476 | 518 | 562 | 609 | 661 | 717 | 778 |
| less capex | (1,122) | (1,229) | (1,164) | (1,347) | (1,452) | (1,365) | (1,251) | (1,109) | (934) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,170 | 303 | 1,035 | — | 167 | 392 | 654 | 959 | 1,310 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 158 | 335 | 504 | 665 | 819 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 27, dividends at 42.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,326 | 1,433 | 1,555 | 1,687 | 1,830 | 1,986 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,431 | 1,553 | 1,685 | 1,828 | 1,984 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,550 | 1,056 | 1,146 | 1,243 | 1,349 | 1,464 |
| Dividends | (665) | (453) | (492) | (533) | (579) | (628) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 169 | (118) | (219) | (100) | 278 | 959 |
| Working capital | (88) | (88) | (88) | (88) | (88) | (88) |
| Net block and other assets | 16,947 | 17,838 | 18,593 | 19,183 | 19,575 | 19,731 |
| Debt | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Equity | 11,525 | 12,128 | 12,782 | 13,492 | 14,262 | 15,098 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,617 | 1,755 | 1,904 | 2,066 | 2,242 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,452) | (1,365) | (1,251) | (1,109) | (934) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (453) | (492) | (533) | (579) | (628) | |
| Net change in cash | (288) | (101) | 120 | 378 | 680 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 165 | 391 | 653 | 957 | 1,308 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹116 | (23.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.