₹368per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹368implied FY26 P/E 18.0× · EV/EBITDA 12.6×
Against CMP ₹355.00+3.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies8.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹285₹535
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹342₹641
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 781 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,590 |
| Enterprise value | 3,371 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,376 |
| ÷ 9.17 crore shares | ₹368 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 381 | 409 | 442 | 484 | 535 |
| 10.50% | 351 | 374 | 402 | 435 | 476 |
| 11.00% | 326 | 345 | 368 | 395 | 428 |
| 11.50% | 304 | 320 | 340 | 362 | 389 |
| 12.00% | 285 | 299 | 315 | 334 | 357 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹355.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 301 · 366 · 446 |
| Draws below the CMP | 42% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,099 | 1,245 | 1,356 | 1,483 | 1,623 | 1,778 | 1,946 | 2,131 | 2,334 |
| growth % | 23.7 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 151 | 193 | 244 | 267 | 292 | 320 | 350 | 384 | 420 |
| margin % | 13.7 | 15.5 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| less depreciation | (39) | (40) | (44) | (44) | (47) | (52) | (56) | (62) | (68) |
| EBIT | 111 | 153 | 200 | 223 | 245 | 268 | 294 | 322 | 352 |
| less tax on EBIT | (57) | (62) | (68) | (75) | (82) | (90) | |||
| NOPAT | 167 | 183 | 200 | 219 | 240 | 263 | |||
| add depreciation | 39 | 40 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 52 | 56 | 62 | 68 |
| less capex | (45) | (69) | (36) | (60) | (65) | (69) | (73) | (77) | (81) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 100 | 131 | 120 | — | 165 | 183 | 203 | 225 | 249 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 157 | 156 | 156 | 156 | 156 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 22.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 223 | 245 | 268 | 294 | 322 | 352 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 245 | 268 | 294 | 322 | 352 | |
| Profit after tax | 184 | 183 | 200 | 219 | 240 | 263 |
| Dividends | (41) | (41) | (45) | (49) | (54) | (59) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 129 | 267 | 422 | 593 | 784 |
| Working capital | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| Net block and other assets | 995 | 1,012 | 1,030 | 1,046 | 1,061 | 1,075 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 740 | 882 | 1,038 | 1,208 | 1,395 | 1,599 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 230 | 252 | 276 | 302 | 331 | |
| Investing (capex) | (65) | (69) | (73) | (77) | (81) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (41) | (45) | (49) | (54) | (59) | |
| Net change in cash | 124 | 138 | 154 | 171 | 191 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 165 | 183 | 203 | 225 | 249 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 18% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹368 | 3.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.