₹380per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹380implied FY26 P/E 15.4× · EV/EBITDA 20.0×
Against CMP ₹1,250.80−69.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹294₹552
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹908₹1,434
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,443 |
| PV of terminal value | 18,826 |
| Enterprise value | 24,269 |
| less net debt | 365 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 24,634 |
| ÷ 64.84 crore shares | ₹380 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 392 | 421 | 456 | 498 | 552 |
| 10.50% | 362 | 386 | 415 | 449 | 490 |
| 11.00% | 336 | 356 | 380 | 408 | 441 |
| 11.50% | 314 | 331 | 351 | 374 | 401 |
| 12.00% | 294 | 309 | 326 | 345 | 368 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,250.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 304 · 378 · 470 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,346 | 2,536 | 2,850 | 3,285 | 3,794 | 4,382 | 5,061 | 5,846 | 6,752 |
| growth % | 47.6 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 59 | 719 | 1,132 | 1,211 | 1,400 | 1,617 | 1,868 | 2,157 | 2,491 |
| margin % | 2.5 | 28.3 | 39.7 | 36.9 | 36.9 | 36.9 | 36.9 | 36.9 | 36.9 |
| less depreciation | (73) | (101) | (113) | (123) | (140) | (162) | (187) | (216) | (250) |
| EBIT | (14) | 618 | 1,019 | 1,088 | 1,260 | 1,455 | 1,680 | 1,941 | 2,242 |
| less tax on EBIT | (184) | (213) | (246) | (284) | (328) | (379) | |||
| NOPAT | 904 | 1,047 | 1,209 | 1,396 | 1,613 | 1,863 | |||
| add depreciation | 73 | 101 | 113 | 123 | 140 | 162 | 187 | 216 | 250 |
| less capex | (58) | (30) | (83) | (75) | (87) | (124) | (171) | (228) | (300) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 462 | 673 | 793 | — | 1,100 | 1,247 | 1,413 | 1,601 | 1,813 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,044 | 1,066 | 1,089 | 1,111 | 1,133 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 37.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,088 | 1,260 | 1,455 | 1,680 | 1,941 | 2,242 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,260 | 1,455 | 1,680 | 1,941 | 2,242 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,450 | 1,047 | 1,209 | 1,396 | 1,613 | 1,863 |
| Dividends | (544) | (393) | (453) | (524) | (605) | (699) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 365 | 1,073 | 1,866 | 2,756 | 3,752 | 4,866 |
| Working capital | (105) | (105) | (105) | (105) | (105) | (105) |
| Net block and other assets | 47,299 | 47,246 | 47,208 | 47,192 | 47,204 | 47,254 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 40,369 | 41,024 | 41,779 | 42,652 | 43,660 | 44,824 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,187 | 1,371 | 1,584 | 1,829 | 2,113 | |
| Investing (capex) | (87) | (124) | (171) | (228) | (300) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (393) | (453) | (524) | (605) | (699) | |
| Net change in cash | 707 | 793 | 889 | 996 | 1,114 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,100 | 1,247 | 1,413 | 1,601 | 1,813 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 36.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹380 | (69.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.