Models
INOX INDIA LIMITEDINOXINDIAIndustrial Products
₹396per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹396implied FY26 P/E 14.1× · EV/EBITDA 10.7×
Against CMP ₹2,242.50−82.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹296₹596
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,068₹2,340
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 570 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,078 |
| Enterprise value | 3,648 |
| less net debt | (53) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,595 |
| ÷ 9.08 crore shares | ₹396 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 410 | 444 | 485 | 534 | 596 |
| 10.50% | 375 | 403 | 436 | 476 | 525 |
| 11.00% | 345 | 369 | 396 | 429 | 468 |
| 11.50% | 319 | 339 | 362 | 389 | 421 |
| 12.00% | 296 | 313 | 333 | 356 | 383 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,242.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 283 · 390 · 507 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,131 | 1,306 | 1,587 | 1,928 | 2,343 | 2,847 | 3,459 | 4,202 |
| growth % | — | 15.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 250 | 292 | 340 | 413 | 501 | 609 | 740 | 899 |
| margin % | 22.1 | 22.3 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (25) | (34) | (40) | (49) | (60) | (73) | (88) |
| EBIT | 232 | 267 | 306 | 372 | 452 | 549 | 668 | 811 |
| less tax on EBIT | (75) | (92) | (111) | (135) | (164) | (200) | ||
| NOPAT | 231 | 281 | 341 | 414 | 503 | 612 | ||
| add depreciation | 18 | 25 | 34 | 40 | 49 | 60 | 73 | 88 |
| less capex | (101) | (125) | (106) | (129) | (132) | (131) | (123) | (106) |
| less working-capital build | — | (136) | (166) | (201) | (245) | (297) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 24 | (3) | — | 55 | 92 | 141 | 208 | 296 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 53 | 79 | 109 | 144 | 185 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 70, dividends at 7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 306 | 372 | 452 | 549 | 668 | 811 |
| Interest at 18% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 360 | 440 | 537 | 655 | 799 | |
| Profit after tax | 258 | 271 | 332 | 405 | 494 | 602 |
| Dividends | (18) | (19) | (23) | (28) | (35) | (42) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | 43 | 102 | 206 | 370 | 614 |
| Working capital | 635 | 772 | 938 | 1,139 | 1,384 | 1,681 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,365 | 1,453 | 1,537 | 1,608 | 1,659 | 1,676 |
| Debt | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Equity | 1,118 | 1,370 | 1,678 | 2,055 | 2,514 | 3,074 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 175 | 215 | 263 | 322 | 393 | |
| Investing (capex) | (129) | (132) | (131) | (123) | (106) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (19) | (23) | (28) | (35) | (42) | |
| Net change in cash | 27 | 59 | 104 | 164 | 245 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 46 | 82 | 132 | 198 | 287 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 21.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹396 | (82.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.