Models
INSECTICIDES (I) LTDINSECTICIDFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹472per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹472implied FY26 P/E 11.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.3×
Against CMP ₹611.00−22.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹353₹711
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹519₹803
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 257 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,174 |
| Enterprise value | 1,432 |
| less net debt | (57) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,375 |
| ÷ 2.91 crore shares | ₹472 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 489 | 530 | 578 | 637 | 711 |
| 10.50% | 447 | 481 | 520 | 568 | 626 |
| 11.00% | 411 | 440 | 472 | 511 | 558 |
| 11.50% | 380 | 404 | 432 | 464 | 502 |
| 12.00% | 353 | 374 | 397 | 424 | 456 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹611.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 335 · 469 · 610 |
| Draws below the CMP | 90% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.34 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,801 | 1,966 | 2,000 | 2,140 | 2,290 | 2,450 | 2,622 | 2,805 | 3,001 |
| growth % | 19.8 | 9.2 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 122 | 163 | 221 | 227 | 243 | 260 | 278 | 297 | 318 |
| margin % | 6.8 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| less depreciation | (26) | (29) | (29) | (35) | (39) | (42) | (45) | (48) | (51) |
| EBIT | 96 | 133 | 192 | 192 | 204 | 218 | 233 | 250 | 267 |
| less tax on EBIT | (49) | (52) | (55) | (59) | (63) | (68) | |||
| NOPAT | 143 | 152 | 163 | 174 | 186 | 199 | |||
| add depreciation | 26 | 29 | 29 | 35 | 39 | 42 | 45 | 48 | 51 |
| less capex | (87) | (49) | (37) | (95) | (101) | (93) | (84) | (74) | (61) |
| less working-capital build | — | (58) | (62) | (66) | (71) | (76) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (98) | 135 | 56 | — | 32 | 49 | 68 | 89 | 113 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 31 | 42 | 52 | 62 | 71 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 144, dividends at 4.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 192 | 204 | 218 | 233 | 250 | 267 |
| Interest at 13.8% on debt | (20) | (20) | (20) | (20) | (20) | |
| Profit before tax | 184 | 198 | 213 | 230 | 247 | |
| Profit after tax | 139 | 137 | 148 | 159 | 171 | 184 |
| Dividends | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 87 | 99 | 127 | 173 | 240 | 331 |
| Working capital | 828 | 886 | 948 | 1,014 | 1,085 | 1,161 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,085 | 1,147 | 1,199 | 1,238 | 1,265 | 1,275 |
| Debt | 144 | 144 | 144 | 144 | 144 | 144 |
| Equity | 1,220 | 1,352 | 1,493 | 1,646 | 1,810 | 1,987 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 118 | 127 | 137 | 148 | 159 | |
| Investing (capex) | (101) | (93) | (84) | (74) | (61) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | |
| Net change in cash | 12 | 28 | 46 | 67 | 90 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 17 | 34 | 53 | 74 | 98 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 10.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹472 | (22.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.