Models
INVESTMENT & PREC CAST LINVPRECQIndustrial Products
₹42per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹42implied FY26 P/E 3.6× · EV/EBITDA 3.6×
Against CMP ₹1,405.80−97.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31105%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹8₹110
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹551₹1,378
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (6) |
| PV of terminal value | 116 |
| Enterprise value | 110 |
| less net debt | (68) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 42 |
| ÷ 1.00 crore shares | ₹42 |
105% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 46 | 58 | 72 | 89 | 110 |
| 10.50% | 35 | 44 | 56 | 69 | 86 |
| 11.00% | 25 | 33 | 42 | 53 | 67 |
| 11.50% | 16 | 23 | 31 | 40 | 51 |
| 12.00% | 8 | 14 | 21 | 29 | 38 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,405.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (24) · 41 · 102 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 170 | 171 | 165 | 188 | 215 | 245 | 279 | 318 | 363 |
| growth % | 28.8 | 0.5 | (3.4) | 14.2 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 21 | 25 | 22 | 30 | 35 | 39 | 45 | 51 | 58 |
| margin % | 12.6 | 14.8 | 13.6 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (14) | (16) |
| EBIT | 14 | 17 | 14 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 32 | 37 | 42 |
| less tax on EBIT | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | |||
| NOPAT | 15 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 29 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| less capex | (7) | (8) | (4) | (24) | (27) | (27) | (25) | (23) | (20) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (15) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | (2) | 15 | — | (9) | (6) | (2) | 4 | 11 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (9) | (5) | (1) | 3 | 7 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 70, dividends at 4.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 22 | 25 | 28 | 32 | 37 | 42 |
| Interest at 9.2% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 18 | 22 | 26 | 30 | 36 | |
| Profit after tax | 12 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 25 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (12) | (23) | (30) | (32) | (26) |
| Working capital | 63 | 72 | 82 | 93 | 106 | 121 |
| Net block and other assets | 151 | 169 | 185 | 198 | 207 | 210 |
| Debt | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Equity | 103 | 115 | 130 | 147 | 167 | 191 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 14 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 26 | |
| Investing (capex) | (27) | (27) | (25) | (23) | (20) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | (14) | (11) | (7) | (2) | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (14) | (11) | (6) | (1) | 7 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 16.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹42 | (97.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.