Models
IOL CHEM AND PHARMA LTDIOLCPPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹42per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹42implied FY26 P/E 7.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.0×
Against CMP ₹195.00−78.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹30₹65
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹67₹219
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 142 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,158 |
| Enterprise value | 1,300 |
| less net debt | (67) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,233 |
| ÷ 29.36 crore shares | ₹42 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 44 | 48 | 52 | 58 | 65 |
| 10.50% | 40 | 43 | 47 | 51 | 57 |
| 11.00% | 36 | 39 | 42 | 46 | 50 |
| 11.50% | 33 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 |
| 12.00% | 30 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 40 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹195.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 25 · 42 · 59 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,217 | 2,133 | 2,079 | 2,319 | 2,586 | 2,883 | 3,215 | 3,584 | 3,997 |
| growth % | 1.5 | (3.8) | (2.5) | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 226 | 231 | 202 | 258 | 287 | 320 | 357 | 398 | 444 |
| margin % | 10.2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| less depreciation | (46) | (63) | (72) | (80) | (91) | (101) | (113) | (125) | (140) |
| EBIT | 180 | 168 | 130 | 178 | 197 | 219 | 244 | 272 | 304 |
| less tax on EBIT | (45) | (50) | (55) | (62) | (69) | (77) | |||
| NOPAT | 133 | 147 | 164 | 183 | 203 | 227 | |||
| add depreciation | 46 | 63 | 72 | 80 | 91 | 101 | 113 | 125 | 140 |
| less capex | (212) | (274) | (214) | (173) | (194) | (192) | (188) | (180) | (168) |
| less working-capital build | — | (57) | (63) | (70) | (78) | (87) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (90) | 16 | (35) | — | (13) | 9 | 37 | 70 | 112 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (13) | 8 | 28 | 49 | 70 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 132, dividends at 21.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 178 | 197 | 219 | 244 | 272 | 304 |
| Interest at 11.7% on debt | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | |
| Profit before tax | 181 | 204 | 229 | 257 | 288 | |
| Profit after tax | 138 | 135 | 152 | 171 | 192 | 215 |
| Dividends | (29) | (29) | (32) | (36) | (41) | (46) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 65 | 12 | (23) | (34) | (16) | 38 |
| Working capital | 492 | 548 | 611 | 682 | 760 | 847 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,030 | 2,133 | 2,225 | 2,300 | 2,355 | 2,383 |
| Debt | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 |
| Equity | 1,799 | 1,905 | 2,025 | 2,159 | 2,310 | 2,480 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 169 | 190 | 213 | 239 | 268 | |
| Investing (capex) | (194) | (192) | (188) | (180) | (168) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (29) | (32) | (36) | (41) | (46) | |
| Net change in cash | (54) | (35) | (11) | 18 | 54 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (25) | (2) | 25 | 59 | 100 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹42 | (78.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.