Models
ION EXCHANGE (INDIA) LTDIONEXCHANGOther Utilities
₹11per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹11implied FY26 P/E 1.3× · EV/EBITDA 2.2×
Against CMP ₹446.00−97.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31151%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(2)₹37
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹313₹486
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (222) |
| PV of terminal value | 655 |
| Enterprise value | 433 |
| less net debt | (270) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 163 |
| ÷ 14.67 crore shares | ₹11 |
151% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 13 | 17 | 22 | 29 | 37 |
| 10.50% | 8 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 28 |
| 11.00% | 4 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 21 |
| 11.50% | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 15 |
| 12.00% | (2) | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹446.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (10) · 11 · 32 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,990 | 2,348 | 2,737 | 2,915 | 3,104 | 3,306 | 3,521 | 3,750 | 3,994 |
| growth % | 26.2 | 18.0 | 16.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| EBITDA | 255 | 272 | 294 | 193 | 205 | 218 | 232 | 247 | 264 |
| margin % | 12.8 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| less depreciation | (29) | (36) | (44) | (63) | (65) | (69) | (74) | (79) | (84) |
| EBIT | 226 | 236 | 249 | 131 | 140 | 149 | 158 | 169 | 180 |
| less tax on EBIT | (35) | (37) | (40) | (42) | (45) | (48) | |||
| NOPAT | 96 | 102 | 109 | 116 | 124 | 132 | |||
| add depreciation | 29 | 36 | 44 | 63 | 65 | 69 | 74 | 79 | 84 |
| less capex | (60) | (120) | (320) | (254) | (270) | (237) | (198) | (152) | (101) |
| less working-capital build | — | (40) | (43) | (46) | (49) | (52) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3 | 10 | (288) | — | (143) | (101) | (53) | 1 | 63 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (136) | (86) | (41) | 1 | 39 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 454, dividends at 13.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 131 | 140 | 149 | 158 | 169 | 180 |
| Interest at 6.3% on debt | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | |
| Profit before tax | 111 | 120 | 130 | 140 | 151 | |
| Profit after tax | 143 | 81 | 88 | 95 | 103 | 111 |
| Dividends | (19) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 185 | 10 | (124) | (211) | (245) | (218) |
| Working capital | 617 | 657 | 699 | 745 | 794 | 845 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,579 | 2,784 | 2,951 | 3,074 | 3,148 | 3,165 |
| Debt | 454 | 454 | 454 | 454 | 454 | 454 |
| Equity | 1,340 | 1,411 | 1,487 | 1,569 | 1,657 | 1,753 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 106 | 115 | 123 | 133 | 143 | |
| Investing (capex) | (270) | (237) | (198) | (152) | (101) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | |
| Net change in cash | (175) | (134) | (87) | (34) | 27 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (164) | (122) | (74) | (20) | 42 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6.5% | 6.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹11 | (97.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.