Models
IPCA LABORATORIES LTDIPCALABPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹571per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹571implied FY26 P/E 11.1× · EV/EBITDA 7.8×
Against CMP ₹1,964.20−70.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹437₹839
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,252₹2,002
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,264 |
| PV of terminal value | 11,498 |
| Enterprise value | 14,763 |
| less net debt | (267) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 14,496 |
| ÷ 25.37 crore shares | ₹571 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 591 | 636 | 690 | 756 | 839 |
| 10.50% | 543 | 581 | 625 | 679 | 744 |
| 11.00% | 503 | 535 | 571 | 615 | 667 |
| 11.50% | 468 | 495 | 526 | 562 | 605 |
| 12.00% | 437 | 460 | 487 | 517 | 553 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,964.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 440 · 567 · 710 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,244 | 7,705 | 8,940 | 9,646 | 10,418 | 11,251 | 12,152 | 13,124 | 14,174 |
| growth % | 7.1 | 23.4 | 16.0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 927 | 1,213 | 1,521 | 1,892 | 2,042 | 2,205 | 2,382 | 2,572 | 2,778 |
| margin % | 14.8 | 15.7 | 17.0 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 |
| less depreciation | (262) | (357) | (398) | (418) | (448) | (484) | (523) | (564) | (609) |
| EBIT | 665 | 856 | 1,123 | 1,474 | 1,594 | 1,721 | 1,859 | 2,008 | 2,169 |
| less tax on EBIT | (357) | (386) | (417) | (450) | (486) | (525) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,117 | 1,208 | 1,305 | 1,409 | 1,522 | 1,644 | |||
| add depreciation | 262 | 357 | 398 | 418 | 448 | 484 | 523 | 564 | 609 |
| less capex | (494) | (411) | (776) | (652) | (708) | (719) | (727) | (731) | (731) |
| less working-capital build | — | (305) | (329) | (356) | (384) | (415) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 311 | 533 | 546 | — | 643 | 741 | 850 | 971 | 1,107 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 610 | 633 | 654 | 674 | 692 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 704, dividends at 4.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,474 | 1,594 | 1,721 | 1,859 | 2,008 | 2,169 |
| Interest at 7.6% on debt | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,540 | 1,668 | 1,806 | 1,954 | 2,115 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,141 | 1,168 | 1,264 | 1,369 | 1,481 | 1,603 |
| Dividends | (52) | (54) | (58) | (63) | (68) | (74) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 437 | 986 | 1,628 | 2,374 | 3,236 | 4,229 |
| Working capital | 3,806 | 4,110 | 4,440 | 4,795 | 5,179 | 5,594 |
| Net block and other assets | 8,127 | 8,388 | 8,623 | 8,827 | 8,994 | 9,116 |
| Debt | 704 | 704 | 704 | 704 | 704 | 704 |
| Equity | 9,524 | 10,638 | 11,844 | 13,150 | 14,563 | 16,093 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,311 | 1,419 | 1,536 | 1,662 | 1,798 | |
| Investing (capex) | (708) | (719) | (727) | (731) | (731) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (54) | (58) | (63) | (68) | (74) | |
| Net change in cash | 549 | 642 | 746 | 863 | 993 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 602 | 700 | 809 | 931 | 1,067 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 19.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹571 | (70.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.