Models
IRB INFRA DEV LTD.IRBConstruction
₹6per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹6implied FY26 P/E 5.9× · EV/EBITDA 6.9×
Against CMP ₹19.68−67.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies12.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3165%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2₹15
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹19₹24
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 9,456 |
| PV of terminal value | 17,856 |
| Enterprise value | 27,312 |
| less net debt | (19,662) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,650 |
| ÷ 1,207.80 crore shares | ₹6 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| 10.50% | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| 11.00% | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| 11.50% | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 12.00% | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹19.68; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3 · 6 · 11 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,402 | 7,409 | 7,613 | 7,648 | 7,686 | 7,725 | 7,763 | 7,802 | 7,841 |
| growth % | 10.3 | 15.7 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| EBITDA | 3,229 | 3,332 | 9,410 | 3,939 | 3,958 | 3,978 | 3,998 | 4,018 | 4,038 |
| margin % | 50.4 | 45.0 | 123.6 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 |
| less depreciation | (832) | (995) | (1,038) | (1,142) | (1,145) | (1,151) | (1,157) | (1,163) | (1,168) |
| EBIT | 2,397 | 2,337 | 8,372 | 2,797 | 2,813 | 2,827 | 2,841 | 2,856 | 2,870 |
| less tax on EBIT | (892) | (897) | (902) | (906) | (911) | (916) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,905 | 1,916 | 1,925 | 1,935 | 1,945 | 1,954 | |||
| add depreciation | 832 | 995 | 1,038 | 1,142 | 1,145 | 1,151 | 1,157 | 1,163 | 1,168 |
| less capex | (49) | (29) | (113) | (64) | (61) | (392) | (725) | (1,062) | (1,402) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,715 | 4,025 | 1,859 | — | 2,998 | 2,683 | 2,365 | 2,044 | 1,719 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,846 | 2,295 | 1,822 | 1,419 | 1,075 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 20,008, dividends at 14.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,797 | 2,813 | 2,827 | 2,841 | 2,856 | 2,870 |
| Interest at 8.6% on debt | (1,721) | (1,721) | (1,721) | (1,721) | (1,721) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,093 | 1,107 | 1,121 | 1,135 | 1,149 | |
| Profit after tax | 850 | 744 | 754 | 763 | 773 | 783 |
| Dividends | (127) | (111) | (112) | (114) | (115) | (117) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 346 | 2,062 | 3,461 | 4,541 | 5,298 | 5,729 |
| Working capital | 266 | 267 | 269 | 270 | 272 | 273 |
| Net block and other assets | 53,441 | 52,357 | 51,598 | 51,166 | 51,066 | 51,299 |
| Debt | 20,008 | 20,008 | 20,008 | 20,008 | 20,008 | 20,008 |
| Equity | 20,949 | 21,582 | 22,223 | 22,873 | 23,530 | 24,196 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,888 | 1,903 | 1,919 | 1,934 | 1,950 | |
| Investing (capex) | (61) | (392) | (725) | (1,062) | (1,402) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (111) | (112) | (114) | (115) | (117) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,716 | 1,399 | 1,080 | 757 | 431 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,826 | 1,512 | 1,194 | 872 | 548 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0.5% | 51.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹6 | (67.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.