Models
ITC LTDITCDiversified FMCG
₹296per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹296implied FY26 P/E 18.7× · EV/EBITDA 13.8×
Against CMP ₹259.85+13.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies6.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹228₹430
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹256₹426
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 87,072 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,84,955 |
| Enterprise value | 3,72,027 |
| less net debt | (1,543) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,70,484 |
| ÷ 1,252.95 crore shares | ₹296 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 306 | 328 | 355 | 389 | 430 |
| 10.50% | 282 | 301 | 323 | 350 | 382 |
| 11.00% | 261 | 277 | 296 | 318 | 344 |
| 11.50% | 244 | 257 | 273 | 291 | 312 |
| 12.00% | 228 | 240 | 253 | 268 | 286 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹259.85; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 244 · 294 · 356 |
| Draws below the CMP | 20% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.41 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 76,518 | 76,840 | 81,613 | 89,913 | 98,905 | 1,08,795 | 1,19,675 | 1,31,642 | 1,44,806 |
| growth % | 17.4 | 0.4 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| EBITDA | 25,738 | 26,247 | 25,978 | 27,026 | 29,770 | 32,747 | 36,022 | 39,624 | 43,587 |
| margin % | 33.6 | 34.2 | 31.8 | 30.1 | 30.1 | 30.1 | 30.1 | 30.1 | 30.1 |
| less depreciation | (1,809) | (1,816) | (1,646) | (1,711) | (1,879) | (2,067) | (2,274) | (2,501) | (2,751) |
| EBIT | 23,929 | 24,430 | 24,332 | 25,316 | 27,891 | 30,680 | 33,748 | 37,123 | 40,835 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6,430) | (7,084) | (7,793) | (8,572) | (9,429) | (10,372) | |||
| NOPAT | 18,885 | 20,807 | 22,887 | 25,176 | 27,694 | 30,463 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,809 | 1,816 | 1,646 | 1,711 | 1,879 | 2,067 | 2,274 | 2,501 | 2,751 |
| less capex | (2,743) | (3,563) | (2,279) | (2,183) | (2,374) | (2,578) | (2,800) | (3,041) | (3,302) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1,690) | (1,859) | (2,045) | (2,250) | (2,475) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 16,135 | 13,616 | 15,348 | — | 18,622 | 20,517 | 22,604 | 24,904 | 27,438 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 17,675 | 17,544 | 17,413 | 17,284 | 17,155 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,186, dividends at 88.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 25,316 | 27,891 | 30,680 | 33,748 | 37,123 | 40,835 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (164) | (164) | (164) | (164) | (164) | |
| Profit before tax | 27,727 | 30,516 | 33,584 | 36,959 | 40,671 | |
| Profit after tax | 20,689 | 20,684 | 22,765 | 25,054 | 27,571 | 30,341 |
| Dividends | (18,272) | (18,264) | (20,102) | (22,123) | (24,346) | (26,791) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 643 | 879 | 1,171 | 1,531 | 1,967 | 2,492 |
| Working capital | 16,899 | 18,589 | 20,449 | 22,494 | 24,744 | 27,219 |
| Net block and other assets | 76,250 | 76,745 | 77,256 | 77,783 | 78,322 | 78,873 |
| Debt | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 |
| Equity | 72,873 | 75,293 | 77,957 | 80,888 | 84,114 | 87,664 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 20,873 | 22,973 | 25,282 | 27,823 | 30,617 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,374) | (2,578) | (2,800) | (3,041) | (3,302) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (18,264) | (20,102) | (22,123) | (24,346) | (26,791) | |
| Net change in cash | 235 | 293 | 359 | 436 | 525 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 18,500 | 20,394 | 22,482 | 24,782 | 27,316 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10% | 30.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹296 | 13.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.