Models
ITC HOTELS LIMITEDITCHOTELSLeisure Services
₹62per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹62implied FY26 P/E 14.9× · EV/EBITDA 9.6×
Against CMP ₹154.49−59.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹48₹90
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹137₹251
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,975 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,888 |
| Enterprise value | 12,863 |
| less net debt | 34 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 12,897 |
| ÷ 208.30 crore shares | ₹62 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 64 | 69 | 74 | 81 | 90 |
| 10.50% | 59 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 80 |
| 11.00% | 55 | 58 | 62 | 66 | 72 |
| 11.50% | 51 | 54 | 57 | 61 | 65 |
| 12.00% | 48 | 50 | 53 | 56 | 60 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹154.49; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 46 · 61 · 79 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,560 | 4,139 | 4,822 | 5,618 | 6,545 | 7,625 | 8,883 |
| growth % | — | 16.3 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,211 | 1,344 | 1,567 | 1,826 | 2,127 | 2,478 | 2,887 |
| margin % | 34.0 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 32.5 |
| less depreciation | (402) | (417) | (487) | (567) | (661) | (770) | (897) |
| EBIT | 809 | 927 | 1,080 | 1,258 | 1,466 | 1,708 | 1,990 |
| less tax on EBIT | (252) | (294) | (342) | (399) | (465) | (541) | |
| NOPAT | 675 | 786 | 916 | 1,067 | 1,243 | 1,449 | |
| add depreciation | 402 | 417 | 487 | 567 | 661 | 770 | 897 |
| less capex | (386) | (410) | (477) | (587) | (721) | (882) | (1,077) |
| less working-capital build | — | (172) | (201) | (234) | (272) | (317) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 418 | — | 624 | 696 | 774 | 860 | 952 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 592 | 595 | 596 | 597 | 595 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 927 | 1,080 | 1,258 | 1,466 | 1,708 | 1,990 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,080 | 1,258 | 1,466 | 1,708 | 1,990 | |
| Profit after tax | 817 | 786 | 916 | 1,067 | 1,243 | 1,449 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 35 | 659 | 1,355 | 2,129 | 2,988 | 3,940 |
| Working capital | 1,044 | 1,217 | 1,417 | 1,651 | 1,923 | 2,240 |
| Net block and other assets | 12,405 | 12,395 | 12,415 | 12,475 | 12,586 | 12,766 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 11,699 | 12,485 | 13,401 | 14,468 | 15,712 | 17,160 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,101 | 1,283 | 1,495 | 1,741 | 2,029 | |
| Investing (capex) | (477) | (587) | (721) | (882) | (1,077) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 624 | 696 | 774 | 860 | 952 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 624 | 696 | 774 | 860 | 952 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16.5% | 32.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹62 | (59.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.