Models
J.G.CHEMICALS LIMITEDJGCHEMChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹142per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹142implied FY26 P/E 7.4× · EV/EBITDA 6.7×
Against CMP ₹594.60−76.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3191%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹105₹217
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹298₹675
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 48 |
| PV of terminal value | 498 |
| Enterprise value | 547 |
| less net debt | 10 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 557 |
| ÷ 3.92 crore shares | ₹142 |
91% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 147 | 160 | 175 | 194 | 217 |
| 10.50% | 134 | 145 | 157 | 172 | 190 |
| 11.00% | 123 | 132 | 142 | 154 | 169 |
| 11.50% | 113 | 121 | 129 | 140 | 152 |
| 12.00% | 105 | 111 | 119 | 127 | 137 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹594.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 87 · 140 · 191 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 668 | 848 | 973 | 1,114 | 1,276 | 1,460 | 1,672 | 1,915 |
| growth % | — | 27.0 | 14.7 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 44 | 86 | 82 | 94 | 107 | 123 | 140 | 161 |
| margin % | 6.5 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (10) |
| EBIT | 39 | 81 | 77 | 88 | 101 | 115 | 132 | 151 |
| less tax on EBIT | (20) | (22) | (26) | (29) | (34) | (39) | ||
| NOPAT | 57 | 66 | 75 | 86 | 98 | 113 | ||
| add depreciation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| less capex | (9) | (5) | (39) | (45) | (40) | (34) | (24) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (37) | (42) | (48) | (55) | (63) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 67 | (16) | — | (10) | (1) | 12 | 28 | 48 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (9) | (0) | 9 | 19 | 30 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 6, dividends at 5.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 77 | 88 | 101 | 115 | 132 | 151 |
| Interest at 16.2% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 87 | 100 | 114 | 131 | 150 | |
| Profit after tax | 66 | 65 | 74 | 85 | 98 | 112 |
| Dividends | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | 2 | (4) | 2 | 23 | 64 |
| Working capital | 252 | 288 | 330 | 378 | 433 | 496 |
| Net block and other assets | 301 | 340 | 374 | 400 | 416 | 418 |
| Debt | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Equity | 541 | 602 | 672 | 752 | 844 | 949 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 34 | 39 | 45 | 51 | 59 | |
| Investing (capex) | (45) | (40) | (34) | (24) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| Net change in cash | (15) | (6) | 6 | 21 | 41 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (11) | (1) | 11 | 27 | 47 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14.5% | 8.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹142 | (76.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.