Models
JAGRAN PRAKASHAN LIMITEDJAGRANMedia
₹69per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹69implied FY26 P/E 8.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹62.23+10.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(9.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3166%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹55₹96
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹60₹79
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 499 |
| PV of terminal value | 987 |
| Enterprise value | 1,486 |
| less net debt | 14 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,500 |
| ÷ 21.77 crore shares | ₹69 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 71 | 76 | 81 | 88 | 96 |
| 10.50% | 66 | 70 | 74 | 80 | 86 |
| 11.00% | 62 | 65 | 69 | 73 | 79 |
| 11.50% | 58 | 61 | 64 | 68 | 72 |
| 12.00% | 55 | 58 | 60 | 63 | 67 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹62.23; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 56 · 69 · 83 |
| Draws below the CMP | 25% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,856 | 1,934 | 1,888 | 1,876 | 1,867 | 1,858 | 1,848 | 1,839 | 1,830 |
| growth % | 14.9 | 4.2 | (2.4) | (0.6) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) |
| EBITDA | 293 | 368 | 160 | 250 | 248 | 247 | 246 | 245 | 243 |
| margin % | 15.8 | 19.0 | 8.5 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
| less depreciation | (107) | (208) | (108) | (86) | (86) | (85) | (85) | (85) | (84) |
| EBIT | 186 | 160 | 52 | 164 | 162 | 162 | 161 | 160 | 159 |
| less tax on EBIT | (51) | (50) | (50) | (50) | (49) | (49) | |||
| NOPAT | 113 | 112 | 112 | 111 | 111 | 110 | |||
| add depreciation | 107 | 208 | 108 | 86 | 86 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 84 |
| less capex | (33) | (35) | (55) | (44) | (45) | (59) | (73) | (87) | (101) |
| less working-capital build | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 239 | 262 | 169 | — | 155 | 140 | 125 | 110 | 95 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 147 | 120 | 96 | 76 | 59 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 36, dividends at 66.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 164 | 162 | 162 | 161 | 160 | 159 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 160 | 159 | 158 | 157 | 156 | |
| Profit after tax | 197 | 110 | 110 | 109 | 109 | 108 |
| Dividends | (131) | (73) | (73) | (72) | (72) | (72) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 50 | 130 | 195 | 245 | 281 | 303 |
| Working capital | 352 | 350 | 348 | 346 | 345 | 343 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,308 | 2,267 | 2,240 | 2,228 | 2,231 | 2,248 |
| Debt | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
| Equity | 2,131 | 2,168 | 2,205 | 2,242 | 2,279 | 2,315 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 198 | 197 | 196 | 195 | 194 | |
| Investing (capex) | (45) | (59) | (73) | (87) | (101) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (73) | (73) | (72) | (72) | (72) | |
| Net change in cash | 80 | 65 | 50 | 36 | 21 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 153 | 138 | 123 | 108 | 93 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -0.5% | 13.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹69 | 10.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.