Models
JAI BALAJI INDUSTRIES LTDJAIBALAJI
₹70per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹70implied FY25 P/E 22.0× · EV/EBITDA 8.0×
Against CMP ₹65.40+7.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(3.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3078%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹53₹105
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹54₹108
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 1,542 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,350 |
| Enterprise value | 6,892 |
| less net debt | (463) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,429 |
| ÷ 91.23 crore shares | ₹70 |
78% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 73 | 79 | 86 | 94 | 105 |
| 10.50% | 67 | 72 | 77 | 84 | 93 |
| 11.00% | 62 | 66 | 70 | 76 | 83 |
| 11.50% | 57 | 61 | 65 | 69 | 75 |
| 12.00% | 53 | 56 | 60 | 63 | 68 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹65.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 58 · 71 · 85 |
| Draws below the CMP | 30% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,644 | 6,125 | 6,414 | 6,351 | 6,287 | 6,224 | 6,162 | 6,101 | 6,040 |
| growth % | 66.7 | 31.9 | 4.7 | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) |
| EBITDA | 208 | 256 | 906 | 867 | 855 | 847 | 838 | 830 | 821 |
| margin % | 4.5 | 4.2 | 14.1 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 |
| less depreciation | (91) | (98) | (86) | (94) | (94) | (93) | (92) | (92) | (91) |
| EBIT | 117 | 158 | 821 | 773 | 761 | 753 | 746 | 738 | 731 |
| less tax on EBIT | (219) | (215) | (213) | (211) | (209) | (207) | |||
| NOPAT | 554 | 545 | 540 | 535 | 529 | 524 | |||
| add depreciation | 91 | 98 | 86 | 94 | 94 | 93 | 92 | 92 | 91 |
| less capex | (127) | (92) | (381) | (358) | (352) | (289) | (228) | (168) | (109) |
| less working-capital build | — | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 335 | 228 | 457 | — | 297 | 353 | 409 | 462 | 515 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 282 | 302 | 315 | 321 | 322 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 558, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 773 | 761 | 753 | 746 | 738 | 731 |
| Interest at 12.2% on debt | (68) | (68) | (68) | (68) | (68) | |
| Profit before tax | 693 | 685 | 678 | 670 | 663 | |
| Profit after tax | 558 | 497 | 491 | 486 | 480 | 475 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 95 | 343 | 648 | 1,008 | 1,421 | 1,888 |
| Working capital | 966 | 956 | 946 | 937 | 928 | 918 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,830 | 3,088 | 3,284 | 3,420 | 3,496 | 3,514 |
| Debt | 558 | 558 | 558 | 558 | 558 | 558 |
| Equity | 2,125 | 2,621 | 3,113 | 3,599 | 4,079 | 4,554 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 601 | 594 | 588 | 581 | 575 | |
| Investing (capex) | (352) | (289) | (228) | (168) | (109) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 249 | 305 | 360 | 414 | 466 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 249 | 305 | 360 | 414 | 466 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1% | 13.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹70 | 7.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.