Models
JAIPRAKASH POWER VEN. LTDJPPOWERPower
₹8per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹8implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹16.04−52.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3162%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹5₹12
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹13₹25
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,983 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,816 |
| Enterprise value | 7,799 |
| less net debt | (2,625) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,174 |
| ÷ 685.35 crore shares | ₹8 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| 10.50% | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 11.00% | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 11.50% | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| 12.00% | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹16.04; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 5 · 8 · 10 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,787 | 6,763 | 5,462 | 5,563 | 5,675 | 5,788 | 5,904 | 6,022 | 6,143 |
| growth % | 25.1 | 16.9 | (19.2) | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,114 | 1,775 | 1,855 | 1,367 | 1,396 | 1,424 | 1,452 | 1,481 | 1,511 |
| margin % | 19.2 | 26.2 | 34.0 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 |
| less depreciation | (464) | (465) | (470) | (473) | (482) | (492) | (502) | (512) | (522) |
| EBIT | 650 | 1,310 | 1,384 | 894 | 914 | 932 | 951 | 970 | 989 |
| less tax on EBIT | (355) | (363) | (370) | (377) | (385) | (393) | |||
| NOPAT | 539 | 551 | 562 | 573 | 585 | 596 | |||
| add depreciation | 464 | 465 | 470 | 473 | 482 | 492 | 502 | 512 | 522 |
| less capex | (0) | (199) | 0 | (8) | (6) | (152) | (304) | (462) | (627) |
| less working-capital build | — | (26) | (27) | (27) | (28) | (28) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 767 | 1,729 | 1,714 | — | 1,002 | 875 | 744 | 607 | 464 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 951 | 749 | 573 | 421 | 290 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,380, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 894 | 914 | 932 | 951 | 970 | 989 |
| Interest at 10.5% on debt | (355) | (355) | (355) | (355) | (355) | |
| Profit before tax | 559 | 577 | 596 | 615 | 634 | |
| Profit after tax | 451 | 337 | 348 | 359 | 371 | 382 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 755 | 1,542 | 2,204 | 2,734 | 3,126 | 3,376 |
| Working capital | 1,303 | 1,329 | 1,356 | 1,383 | 1,411 | 1,439 |
| Net block and other assets | 15,899 | 15,423 | 15,083 | 14,885 | 14,835 | 14,940 |
| Debt | 3,380 | 3,380 | 3,380 | 3,380 | 3,380 | 3,380 |
| Equity | 12,732 | 13,069 | 13,417 | 13,776 | 14,147 | 14,529 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 793 | 813 | 834 | 855 | 876 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6) | (152) | (304) | (462) | (627) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 788 | 661 | 530 | 393 | 250 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 788 | 661 | 530 | 393 | 250 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 24.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹8 | (52.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.