Models
JASCH INDUSTRIES LTD.BSE 500220Textiles & Apparels
₹416per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹416implied FY23 P/E 20.9× · EV/EBITDA 10.3×
Against CMP ₹292.00+42.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(7.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2881%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹316₹616
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹126₹344
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY24–FY28 free cash flow | 54 |
| PV of terminal value | 230 |
| Enterprise value | 284 |
| less net debt | (1) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 283 |
| ÷ 0.68 crore shares | ₹416 |
81% of the value sits after FY28. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 430 | 464 | 504 | 554 | 616 |
| 10.50% | 395 | 423 | 456 | 496 | 544 |
| 11.00% | 365 | 389 | 416 | 449 | 488 |
| 11.50% | 339 | 359 | 382 | 409 | 441 |
| 12.00% | 316 | 334 | 353 | 376 | 402 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹292.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 337 · 412 · 506 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 178 | 133 | 214 | 234 | 255 | 277 | 302 | 330 | 359 |
| growth % | — | (25.4) | 61.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 15 | 10 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 36 | 39 | 42 |
| margin % | 8.5 | 7.3 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) |
| EBIT | 11 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 35 | 38 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 18 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 26 | 28 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| less capex | — | — | (2) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | — | 1 | — | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 22 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 9, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 24 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 35 | 38 |
| Interest at 14.4% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 25 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 | |
| Profit after tax | 20 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8 | 15 | 25 | 38 | 55 | 76 |
| Working capital | 38 | 41 | 45 | 49 | 54 | 59 |
| Net block and other assets | 108 | 116 | 123 | 128 | 132 | 133 |
| Debt | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Equity | 110 | 129 | 149 | 172 | 197 | 224 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 19 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 27 | |
| Investing (capex) | (11) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 7 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 21 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 7 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 21 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY23 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 11.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹416 | 42.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.