Models
JAY BHARAT MARUTI LTDJAYBARMARUAuto Components
₹268per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹268implied FY26 P/E 21.0× · EV/EBITDA 11.8×
Against CMP ₹116.94+129.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(6.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹196₹412
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹74₹207
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 690 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,645 |
| Enterprise value | 3,335 |
| less net debt | (434) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,901 |
| ÷ 10.83 crore shares | ₹268 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 278 | 303 | 332 | 368 | 412 |
| 10.50% | 253 | 273 | 297 | 326 | 361 |
| 11.00% | 231 | 248 | 268 | 291 | 320 |
| 11.50% | 212 | 227 | 243 | 263 | 286 |
| 12.00% | 196 | 208 | 222 | 239 | 258 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹116.94; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 198 · 265 · 347 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,344 | 2,292 | 2,290 | 2,551 | 2,844 | 3,171 | 3,536 | 3,943 | 4,396 |
| growth % | 12.7 | (2.2) | (0.1) | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 173 | 167 | 165 | 283 | 316 | 352 | 393 | 438 | 488 |
| margin % | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| less depreciation | (80) | (84) | (84) | (95) | (105) | (117) | (131) | (146) | (163) |
| EBIT | 93 | 82 | 81 | 188 | 210 | 235 | 262 | 292 | 325 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (14) | (16) | (18) | (20) | (22) | |||
| NOPAT | 175 | 196 | 219 | 244 | 272 | 304 | |||
| add depreciation | 80 | 84 | 84 | 95 | 105 | 117 | 131 | 146 | 163 |
| less capex | (67) | (145) | (265) | (149) | (168) | (176) | (183) | (189) | (195) |
| less working-capital build | — | (11) | (12) | (13) | (15) | (16) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 87 | 43 | (66) | — | 123 | 149 | 179 | 214 | 255 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 117 | 127 | 138 | 149 | 159 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 439, dividends at 5.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 188 | 210 | 235 | 262 | 292 | 325 |
| Interest at 9.9% on debt | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | |
| Profit before tax | 167 | 191 | 218 | 248 | 282 | |
| Profit after tax | 140 | 156 | 178 | 204 | 232 | 263 |
| Dividends | (8) | (8) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (14) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 79 | 178 | 305 | 466 | 666 |
| Working capital | 91 | 101 | 113 | 126 | 141 | 157 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,735 | 1,798 | 1,856 | 1,908 | 1,952 | 1,984 |
| Debt | 439 | 439 | 439 | 439 | 439 | 439 |
| Equity | 696 | 844 | 1,012 | 1,205 | 1,424 | 1,673 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 251 | 284 | 321 | 363 | 409 | |
| Investing (capex) | (168) | (176) | (183) | (189) | (195) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (14) | |
| Net change in cash | 74 | 99 | 128 | 161 | 200 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 83 | 108 | 139 | 173 | 214 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹268 | 129.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.