Models
JAY USHIN LTD.BSE 513252Auto Components
₹312per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹312implied FY19 P/E 22.0× · EV/EBITDA 7.1×
Against CMP ₹831.45−62.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2461%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹195₹543
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹642₹1,602
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY20–FY24 free cash flow | 96 |
| PV of terminal value | 150 |
| Enterprise value | 246 |
| less net debt | (126) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 120 |
| ÷ 0.39 crore shares | ₹312 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 330 | 369 | 415 | 472 | 543 |
| 10.50% | 289 | 321 | 359 | 404 | 460 |
| 11.00% | 253 | 280 | 312 | 349 | 394 |
| 11.50% | 222 | 245 | 272 | 303 | 339 |
| 12.00% | 195 | 215 | 237 | 263 | 294 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹831.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 131 · 306 · 493 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.93 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 855 | 923 | 997 | 1,077 | 1,163 | 1,256 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 35 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 48 | 52 |
| margin % | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| less depreciation | (16) | (18) | (19) | (20) | (22) | (24) |
| EBIT | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| NOPAT | 17 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 |
| add depreciation | 16 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (6) | (12) | (20) | (29) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 32 | 29 | 25 | 20 | 14 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 30 | 24 | 19 | 14 | 9 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 128, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 |
| Interest at 12.5% on debt | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | |
| Profit before tax | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | |
| Profit after tax | 12 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 20 | 33 | 43 | 49 | 49 |
| Working capital | 54 | 59 | 63 | 69 | 74 | 80 |
| Net block and other assets | 319 | 301 | 288 | 280 | 278 | 282 |
| Debt | 128 | 128 | 128 | 128 | 128 | 128 |
| Equity | 75 | 79 | 84 | 91 | 100 | 110 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 17 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (6) | (12) | (20) | (29) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 17 | 14 | 10 | 5 | (0) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 17 | 14 | 10 | 5 | (0) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY19 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 4.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹312 | (62.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.