Models
JAYANT AGRO ORGANICS LTDJAYAGROGNChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹254per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹254implied FY26 P/E 14.0× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹243.90+4.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹192₹378
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹147₹265
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 249 |
| PV of terminal value | 627 |
| Enterprise value | 876 |
| less net debt | (115) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 761 |
| ÷ 3.00 crore shares | ₹254 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 263 | 284 | 309 | 339 | 378 |
| 10.50% | 241 | 258 | 279 | 303 | 333 |
| 11.00% | 222 | 237 | 254 | 274 | 298 |
| 11.50% | 206 | 218 | 233 | 249 | 269 |
| 12.00% | 192 | 202 | 214 | 228 | 245 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹243.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 213 · 254 · 303 |
| Draws below the CMP | 39% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.77 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,772 | 2,150 | 2,528 | 2,406 | 2,285 | 2,171 | 2,063 | 1,959 | 1,862 |
| growth % | 7.0 | (22.4) | 17.6 | (4.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 97 | 97 | 109 | 104 | 98 | 93 | 89 | 84 | 80 |
| margin % | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (16) | (19) | (22) | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) |
| EBIT | 82 | 81 | 89 | 82 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 67 | 63 |
| less tax on EBIT | (22) | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | |||
| NOPAT | 60 | 56 | 54 | 51 | 48 | 46 | |||
| add depreciation | 15 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| less capex | (41) | (53) | (28) | (34) | (32) | (29) | (26) | (23) | (20) |
| less working-capital build | — | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 82 | (36) | 90 | — | 67 | 65 | 64 | 62 | 60 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 63 | 56 | 49 | 43 | 38 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 127, dividends at 14.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 82 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 67 | 63 |
| Interest at 13.2% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 61 | 57 | 53 | 50 | 47 | |
| Profit after tax | 50 | 44 | 42 | 39 | 36 | 34 |
| Dividends | (8) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 12 | 60 | 107 | 153 | 197 | 240 |
| Working capital | 435 | 413 | 393 | 373 | 354 | 337 |
| Net block and other assets | 535 | 547 | 556 | 563 | 568 | 571 |
| Debt | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 |
| Equity | 642 | 680 | 715 | 748 | 779 | 808 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 87 | 82 | 77 | 73 | 68 | |
| Investing (capex) | (32) | (29) | (26) | (23) | (20) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 48 | 47 | 46 | 44 | 43 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 55 | 53 | 51 | 50 | 48 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 4.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹254 | 4.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.