Models
JAYASWAL NECO INDUSTR LTDJAYNECOINDIndustrial Products
₹146per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹146implied FY26 P/E 25.1× · EV/EBITDA 12.3×
Against CMP ₹89.80+62.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(0.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹109₹220
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹63₹117
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,955 |
| PV of terminal value | 12,201 |
| Enterprise value | 16,156 |
| less net debt | (1,971) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 14,185 |
| ÷ 97.10 crore shares | ₹146 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 152 | 164 | 179 | 197 | 220 |
| 10.50% | 138 | 149 | 161 | 176 | 194 |
| 11.00% | 127 | 136 | 146 | 158 | 173 |
| 11.50% | 117 | 125 | 133 | 143 | 155 |
| 12.00% | 109 | 115 | 123 | 131 | 141 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹89.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 107 · 144 · 189 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,343 | 5,934 | 6,000 | 7,132 | 8,487 | 10,099 | 12,018 | 14,302 | 17,019 |
| growth % | 6.4 | (6.5) | 1.1 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| EBITDA | 731 | 1,008 | 940 | 1,318 | 1,570 | 1,868 | 2,223 | 2,646 | 3,149 |
| margin % | 11.5 | 17.0 | 15.7 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| less depreciation | (266) | (266) | (287) | (301) | (356) | (424) | (505) | (601) | (715) |
| EBIT | 465 | 742 | 653 | 1,017 | 1,214 | 1,444 | 1,719 | 2,045 | 2,434 |
| less tax on EBIT | (237) | (283) | (337) | (400) | (477) | (567) | |||
| NOPAT | 780 | 931 | 1,108 | 1,318 | 1,569 | 1,867 | |||
| add depreciation | 266 | 266 | 287 | 301 | 356 | 424 | 505 | 601 | 715 |
| less capex | (66) | (190) | (244) | (116) | (136) | (248) | (399) | (598) | (858) |
| less working-capital build | — | (274) | (326) | (388) | (461) | (549) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 673 | 491 | 1,144 | — | 878 | 958 | 1,036 | 1,110 | 1,175 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 833 | 819 | 798 | 771 | 735 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,097, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,017 | 1,214 | 1,444 | 1,719 | 2,045 | 2,434 |
| Interest at 17.7% on debt | (371) | (371) | (371) | (371) | (371) | |
| Profit before tax | 843 | 1,073 | 1,347 | 1,674 | 2,063 | |
| Profit after tax | 463 | 646 | 823 | 1,034 | 1,284 | 1,582 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 126 | 719 | 1,392 | 2,144 | 2,970 | 3,860 |
| Working capital | 1,440 | 1,714 | 2,039 | 2,427 | 2,888 | 3,437 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,404 | 4,183 | 4,008 | 3,902 | 3,899 | 4,042 |
| Debt | 2,097 | 2,097 | 2,097 | 2,097 | 2,097 | 2,097 |
| Equity | 2,841 | 3,488 | 4,311 | 5,344 | 6,628 | 8,210 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 729 | 922 | 1,151 | 1,423 | 1,748 | |
| Investing (capex) | (136) | (248) | (399) | (598) | (858) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 593 | 673 | 752 | 826 | 890 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 593 | 673 | 752 | 826 | 890 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19% | 18.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹146 | 62.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.