Models
JAYKAY ENTERPRISES LTDJAYKAYAerospace & Defense
₹552per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹552implied FY26 P/E 35.2× · EV/EBITDA 35.7×
Against CMP ₹167.00+230.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(3.8)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹419₹820
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹116₹220
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,272 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,903 |
| Enterprise value | 7,175 |
| less net debt | 21 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,196 |
| ÷ 13.03 crore shares | ₹552 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 571 | 616 | 671 | 737 | 820 |
| 10.50% | 524 | 562 | 606 | 659 | 724 |
| 11.00% | 484 | 515 | 552 | 596 | 648 |
| 11.50% | 449 | 476 | 507 | 543 | 586 |
| 12.00% | 419 | 442 | 468 | 499 | 534 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹167.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 407 · 548 · 733 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 47 | 53 | 81 | 240 | 312 | 405 | 527 | 684 | 890 |
| growth % | 338.8 | 12.2 | 53.1 | 197.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 2 | 4 | (0) | 201 | 262 | 340 | 442 | 575 | 747 |
| margin % | 4.8 | 7.4 | (0.6) | 84.0 | 84.0 | 84.0 | 84.0 | 84.0 | 84.0 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (3) | (5) | (15) | (20) | (26) | (34) | (44) | (58) |
| EBIT | 1 | 1 | (5) | 186 | 241 | 314 | 408 | 530 | 690 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (15) | (19) | |||
| NOPAT | 181 | 235 | 305 | 397 | 516 | 670 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 58 |
| less capex | (11) | (19) | (49) | (34) | (44) | (51) | (58) | (64) | (69) |
| less working-capital build | — | (32) | (41) | (53) | (69) | (90) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (35) | (52) | (49) | — | 179 | 239 | 319 | 426 | 568 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 170 | 205 | 246 | 296 | 355 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 8, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 186 | 241 | 314 | 408 | 530 | 690 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 241 | 313 | 407 | 530 | 689 | |
| Profit after tax | 247 | 234 | 304 | 396 | 515 | 670 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 29 | 208 | 446 | 765 | 1,191 | 1,759 |
| Working capital | 105 | 137 | 178 | 232 | 301 | 392 |
| Net block and other assets | 699 | 723 | 748 | 771 | 791 | 803 |
| Debt | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Equity | 697 | 931 | 1,235 | 1,631 | 2,146 | 2,816 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 223 | 290 | 377 | 490 | 637 | |
| Investing (capex) | (44) | (51) | (58) | (64) | (69) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 178 | 239 | 319 | 426 | 568 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 178 | 239 | 319 | 426 | 568 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 84% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹552 | 230.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.