Models
JBM AUTO LIMITEDJBMAAuto Components
₹119per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹119implied FY26 P/E 9.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹618.00−80.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹62₹234
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹477₹790
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,129 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,608 |
| Enterprise value | 5,737 |
| less net debt | (2,915) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,822 |
| ÷ 23.65 crore shares | ₹119 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 128 | 147 | 170 | 199 | 234 |
| 10.50% | 107 | 123 | 142 | 165 | 193 |
| 11.00% | 90 | 103 | 119 | 138 | 161 |
| 11.50% | 75 | 86 | 100 | 115 | 134 |
| 12.00% | 62 | 72 | 83 | 96 | 111 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹618.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 59 · 118 · 183 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,857 | 5,009 | 5,472 | 6,088 | 6,789 | 7,569 | 8,440 | 9,410 | 10,492 |
| growth % | 20.8 | 29.9 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 398 | 584 | 677 | 695 | 774 | 863 | 962 | 1,073 | 1,196 |
| margin % | 10.3 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.4 |
| less depreciation | (130) | (171) | (175) | (174) | (197) | (220) | (245) | (273) | (304) |
| EBIT | 268 | 412 | 502 | 521 | 577 | 643 | 717 | 800 | 892 |
| less tax on EBIT | (110) | (122) | (136) | (151) | (169) | (188) | |||
| NOPAT | 411 | 455 | 508 | 566 | 631 | 704 | |||
| add depreciation | 130 | 171 | 175 | 174 | 197 | 220 | 245 | 273 | 304 |
| less capex | (627) | (228) | (122) | (302) | (339) | (350) | (358) | (363) | (365) |
| less working-capital build | — | (129) | (144) | (160) | (179) | (199) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (143) | (23) | 272 | — | 184 | 234 | 293 | 362 | 444 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 175 | 200 | 226 | 251 | 277 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,006, dividends at 9.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 521 | 577 | 643 | 717 | 800 | 892 |
| Interest at 11.3% on debt | (340) | (340) | (340) | (340) | (340) | |
| Profit before tax | 237 | 304 | 378 | 460 | 552 | |
| Profit after tax | 219 | 187 | 240 | 298 | 363 | 436 |
| Dividends | (22) | (19) | (24) | (30) | (36) | (43) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 91 | (12) | (70) | (75) | (16) | 116 |
| Working capital | 1,118 | 1,246 | 1,390 | 1,550 | 1,729 | 1,928 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,161 | 6,304 | 6,434 | 6,547 | 6,637 | 6,698 |
| Debt | 3,006 | 3,006 | 3,006 | 3,006 | 3,006 | 3,006 |
| Equity | 1,592 | 1,760 | 1,976 | 2,245 | 2,572 | 2,964 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 255 | 315 | 383 | 457 | 541 | |
| Investing (capex) | (339) | (350) | (358) | (363) | (365) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (19) | (24) | (30) | (36) | (43) | |
| Net change in cash | (103) | (58) | (5) | 58 | 133 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (84) | (34) | 25 | 94 | 176 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹119 | (80.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.