Models
JINDAL SAW LIMITEDJINDALSAWIndustrial Products
₹199per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹199implied FY26 P/E 19.4× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹313.00−36.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹141₹314
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹153₹320
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,593 |
| PV of terminal value | 12,404 |
| Enterprise value | 16,997 |
| less net debt | (4,284) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 12,713 |
| ÷ 63.95 crore shares | ₹199 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 207 | 227 | 250 | 278 | 314 |
| 10.50% | 187 | 203 | 222 | 245 | 273 |
| 11.00% | 170 | 183 | 199 | 217 | 240 |
| 11.50% | 154 | 166 | 179 | 195 | 213 |
| 12.00% | 141 | 151 | 162 | 175 | 191 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹313.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 157 · 199 · 250 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17,868 | 20,958 | 20,829 | 17,895 | 17,000 | 16,150 | 15,343 | 14,576 | 13,847 |
| growth % | 34.4 | 17.3 | (0.6) | (14.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,640 | 3,321 | 3,429 | 2,215 | 2,108 | 2,003 | 1,903 | 1,807 | 1,717 |
| margin % | 9.2 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| less depreciation | (471) | (568) | (602) | (630) | (595) | (565) | (537) | (510) | (485) |
| EBIT | 1,169 | 2,753 | 2,827 | 1,584 | 1,513 | 1,437 | 1,366 | 1,297 | 1,232 |
| less tax on EBIT | (225) | (215) | (204) | (194) | (184) | (175) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,359 | 1,298 | 1,233 | 1,172 | 1,113 | 1,057 | |||
| add depreciation | 471 | 568 | 602 | 630 | 595 | 565 | 537 | 510 | 485 |
| less capex | (323) | (863) | (1,031) | (1,076) | (1,020) | (896) | (782) | (678) | (582) |
| less working-capital build | — | 287 | 273 | 259 | 246 | 234 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,295 | 1,730 | 1,304 | — | 1,160 | 1,175 | 1,185 | 1,192 | 1,194 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,101 | 1,005 | 913 | 827 | 747 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,691, dividends at 13.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,584 | 1,513 | 1,437 | 1,366 | 1,297 | 1,232 |
| Interest at 13% on debt | (610) | (610) | (610) | (610) | (610) | |
| Profit before tax | 903 | 828 | 756 | 687 | 623 | |
| Profit after tax | 973 | 775 | 710 | 648 | 590 | 534 |
| Dividends | (127) | (102) | (93) | (85) | (77) | (70) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 407 | 942 | 1,501 | 2,078 | 2,670 | 3,271 |
| Working capital | 5,736 | 5,449 | 5,176 | 4,917 | 4,671 | 4,437 |
| Net block and other assets | 15,543 | 15,968 | 16,299 | 16,545 | 16,712 | 16,809 |
| Debt | 4,691 | 4,691 | 4,691 | 4,691 | 4,691 | 4,691 |
| Equity | 12,283 | 12,956 | 13,573 | 14,137 | 14,649 | 15,113 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,657 | 1,548 | 1,445 | 1,346 | 1,253 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,020) | (896) | (782) | (678) | (582) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (102) | (93) | (85) | (77) | (70) | |
| Net change in cash | 536 | 559 | 577 | 591 | 601 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 637 | 652 | 662 | 668 | 671 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 12.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹199 | (36.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.