Models
JINDAL STAINLESS LIMITEDJSLFerrous Metals
₹583per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹583implied FY26 P/E 14.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.0×
Against CMP ₹755.65−22.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies17.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹423₹903
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹652₹884
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 10,293 |
| PV of terminal value | 44,658 |
| Enterprise value | 54,950 |
| less net debt | (6,926) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 48,024 |
| ÷ 82.41 crore shares | ₹583 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 606 | 660 | 724 | 804 | 903 |
| 10.50% | 549 | 594 | 647 | 711 | 789 |
| 11.00% | 501 | 539 | 583 | 635 | 697 |
| 11.50% | 459 | 491 | 528 | 572 | 623 |
| 12.00% | 423 | 450 | 482 | 518 | 561 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹755.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 447 · 577 · 734 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 35,697 | 38,562 | 39,312 | 42,955 | 47,035 | 51,504 | 56,397 | 61,754 | 67,621 |
| growth % | 68.2 | 8.0 | 1.9 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 3,696 | 4,857 | 4,616 | 5,519 | 6,021 | 6,592 | 7,219 | 7,905 | 8,655 |
| margin % | 10.4 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| less depreciation | (724) | (879) | (956) | (1,060) | (1,176) | (1,288) | (1,410) | (1,544) | (1,691) |
| EBIT | 2,972 | 3,978 | 3,660 | 4,459 | 4,845 | 5,305 | 5,809 | 6,361 | 6,965 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,110) | (1,206) | (1,321) | (1,446) | (1,584) | (1,734) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,348 | 3,638 | 3,984 | 4,362 | 4,777 | 5,231 | |||
| add depreciation | 724 | 879 | 956 | 1,060 | 1,176 | 1,288 | 1,410 | 1,544 | 1,691 |
| less capex | (1,656) | (1,475) | (1,885) | (2,658) | (2,916) | (2,781) | (2,594) | (2,347) | (2,029) |
| less working-capital build | — | (412) | (451) | (494) | (541) | (593) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,440 | 3,343 | 2,833 | — | 1,486 | 2,039 | 2,684 | 3,433 | 4,300 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,410 | 1,744 | 2,068 | 2,383 | 2,689 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 7,342, dividends at 7.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4,459 | 4,845 | 5,305 | 5,809 | 6,361 | 6,965 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (609) | (609) | (609) | (609) | (609) | |
| Profit before tax | 4,235 | 4,696 | 5,199 | 5,751 | 6,356 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,193 | 3,181 | 3,526 | 3,905 | 4,319 | 4,773 |
| Dividends | (245) | (245) | (272) | (301) | (333) | (368) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 415 | 1,198 | 2,508 | 4,434 | 7,077 | 10,552 |
| Working capital | 4,331 | 4,743 | 5,194 | 5,688 | 6,230 | 6,822 |
| Net block and other assets | 35,958 | 37,698 | 39,192 | 40,376 | 41,179 | 41,517 |
| Debt | 7,342 | 7,342 | 7,342 | 7,342 | 7,342 | 7,342 |
| Equity | 19,882 | 22,818 | 26,073 | 29,677 | 33,664 | 38,069 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,944 | 4,363 | 4,821 | 5,322 | 5,871 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,916) | (2,781) | (2,594) | (2,347) | (2,029) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (245) | (272) | (301) | (333) | (368) | |
| Net change in cash | 783 | 1,310 | 1,926 | 2,643 | 3,475 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,028 | 1,581 | 2,226 | 2,975 | 3,842 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 12.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹583 | (22.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.