Models
JINDAL STEEL LIMITEDJINDALSTELFerrous Metals
₹338per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹338implied FY26 P/E 12.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.2×
Against CMP ₹1,120.50−69.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies29.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3195%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹189₹637
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹977₹1,306
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,729 |
| PV of terminal value | 51,814 |
| Enterprise value | 54,543 |
| less net debt | (20,148) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 34,395 |
| ÷ 101.78 crore shares | ₹338 |
95% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 358 | 409 | 470 | 544 | 637 |
| 10.50% | 306 | 348 | 398 | 458 | 531 |
| 11.00% | 261 | 297 | 338 | 387 | 446 |
| 11.50% | 222 | 253 | 287 | 328 | 376 |
| 12.00% | 189 | 215 | 244 | 279 | 318 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,120.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 190 · 333 · 500 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 52,711 | 50,027 | 49,765 | 53,225 | 56,951 | 60,937 | 65,203 | 69,767 | 74,651 |
| growth % | 3.2 | (5.1) | (0.5) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 8,565 | 10,201 | 8,265 | 8,788 | 9,397 | 10,055 | 10,758 | 11,512 | 12,317 |
| margin % | 16.2 | 20.4 | 16.6 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| less depreciation | (2,691) | (2,822) | (2,768) | (3,171) | (3,417) | (3,656) | (3,912) | (4,186) | (4,479) |
| EBIT | 5,874 | 7,379 | 5,497 | 5,617 | 5,980 | 6,398 | 6,846 | 7,326 | 7,838 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,337) | (1,423) | (1,523) | (1,629) | (1,743) | (1,866) | |||
| NOPAT | 4,280 | 4,557 | 4,876 | 5,217 | 5,582 | 5,973 | |||
| add depreciation | 2,691 | 2,822 | 2,768 | 3,171 | 3,417 | 3,656 | 3,912 | 4,186 | 4,479 |
| less capex | (6,448) | (8,517) | (10,607) | (9,574) | (10,251) | (9,323) | (8,216) | (6,907) | (5,375) |
| less working-capital build | — | (67) | (72) | (77) | (82) | (88) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 827 | (2,509) | 217 | — | (2,345) | (863) | 837 | 2,779 | 4,989 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (2,225) | (738) | 645 | 1,929 | 3,119 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 22,038, dividends at 6.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 5,617 | 5,980 | 6,398 | 6,846 | 7,326 | 7,838 |
| Interest at 7.6% on debt | (1,675) | (1,675) | (1,675) | (1,675) | (1,675) | |
| Profit before tax | 4,305 | 4,724 | 5,171 | 5,651 | 6,163 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,367 | 3,280 | 3,599 | 3,941 | 4,306 | 4,697 |
| Dividends | (204) | (200) | (220) | (240) | (263) | (286) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,890 | (1,931) | (4,290) | (4,970) | (3,730) | (304) |
| Working capital | 977 | 1,044 | 1,116 | 1,193 | 1,275 | 1,363 |
| Net block and other assets | 94,895 | 1,01,729 | 1,07,396 | 1,11,700 | 1,14,420 | 1,15,316 |
| Debt | 22,038 | 22,038 | 22,038 | 22,038 | 22,038 | 22,038 |
| Equity | 51,841 | 54,921 | 58,301 | 62,001 | 66,044 | 70,454 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6,630 | 7,184 | 7,776 | 8,410 | 9,088 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10,251) | (9,323) | (8,216) | (6,907) | (5,375) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (200) | (220) | (240) | (263) | (286) | |
| Net change in cash | (3,821) | (2,359) | (680) | 1,240 | 3,426 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (3,621) | (2,140) | (440) | 1,503 | 3,713 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 16.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹338 | (69.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.