Models
JK CEMENT LIMITEDJKCEMENTCement & Cement Products
₹1,701per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,701implied FY26 P/E 13.9× · EV/EBITDA 8.2×
Against CMP ₹4,846.00−64.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies42.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3197%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹998₹3,113
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,672₹7,000
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 533 |
| PV of terminal value | 18,566 |
| Enterprise value | 19,099 |
| less net debt | (5,955) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 13,144 |
| ÷ 7.73 crore shares | ₹1,701 |
97% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,796 | 2,035 | 2,322 | 2,674 | 3,113 |
| 10.50% | 1,549 | 1,748 | 1,983 | 2,265 | 2,610 |
| 11.00% | 1,338 | 1,506 | 1,701 | 1,932 | 2,209 |
| 11.50% | 1,156 | 1,299 | 1,463 | 1,655 | 1,882 |
| 12.00% | 998 | 1,120 | 1,260 | 1,422 | 1,610 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,846.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,014 · 1,671 · 2,485 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,720 | 11,556 | 11,879 | 13,722 | 15,849 | 18,306 | 21,143 | 24,421 | 28,206 |
| growth % | 21.6 | 18.9 | 2.8 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,314 | 2,054 | 2,130 | 2,326 | 2,694 | 3,112 | 3,594 | 4,151 | 4,795 |
| margin % | 13.5 | 17.8 | 17.9 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| less depreciation | (458) | (573) | (601) | (653) | (761) | (879) | (1,015) | (1,172) | (1,354) |
| EBIT | 856 | 1,482 | 1,529 | 1,673 | 1,934 | 2,233 | 2,579 | 2,979 | 3,441 |
| less tax on EBIT | (529) | (611) | (706) | (815) | (941) | (1,087) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,145 | 1,323 | 1,528 | 1,764 | 2,038 | 2,354 | |||
| add depreciation | 458 | 573 | 601 | 653 | 761 | 879 | 1,015 | 1,172 | 1,354 |
| less capex | (1,878) | (1,183) | (1,720) | (2,416) | (2,789) | (2,680) | (2,470) | (2,129) | (1,625) |
| less working-capital build | — | (166) | (192) | (221) | (256) | (295) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (501) | 776 | 220 | — | (872) | (465) | 88 | 825 | 1,788 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (828) | (398) | 68 | 573 | 1,118 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 6,074, dividends at 11.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,673 | 1,934 | 2,233 | 2,579 | 2,979 | 3,441 |
| Interest at 7.1% on debt | (431) | (431) | (431) | (431) | (431) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,502 | 1,802 | 2,148 | 2,548 | 3,010 | |
| Profit after tax | 992 | 1,028 | 1,233 | 1,469 | 1,743 | 2,059 |
| Dividends | (116) | (120) | (144) | (172) | (204) | (241) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 119 | (1,168) | (2,073) | (2,451) | (2,125) | (873) |
| Working capital | 1,068 | 1,234 | 1,425 | 1,647 | 1,902 | 2,197 |
| Net block and other assets | 17,313 | 19,342 | 21,143 | 22,598 | 23,555 | 23,826 |
| Debt | 6,074 | 6,074 | 6,074 | 6,074 | 6,074 | 6,074 |
| Equity | 7,090 | 7,998 | 9,086 | 10,384 | 11,923 | 13,740 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,622 | 1,920 | 2,263 | 2,659 | 3,117 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,789) | (2,680) | (2,470) | (2,129) | (1,625) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (120) | (144) | (172) | (204) | (241) | |
| Net change in cash | (1,287) | (905) | (378) | 326 | 1,252 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1,167) | (760) | (207) | 530 | 1,493 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 17% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,701 | (64.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.