Models
JK LAKSHMI CEMENT LTDJKLAKSHMICement & Cement Products
₹430per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹430implied FY26 P/E 14.4× · EV/EBITDA 7.8×
Against CMP ₹505.75−15.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies12.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹275₹740
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹495₹928
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,224 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,528 |
| Enterprise value | 7,752 |
| less net debt | (2,418) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,334 |
| ÷ 12.42 crore shares | ₹430 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 451 | 504 | 567 | 643 | 740 |
| 10.50% | 397 | 440 | 492 | 554 | 629 |
| 11.00% | 350 | 387 | 430 | 480 | 541 |
| 11.50% | 310 | 341 | 377 | 419 | 469 |
| 12.00% | 275 | 301 | 332 | 367 | 409 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹505.75; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 280 · 424 · 595 |
| Draws below the CMP | 73% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,452 | 6,788 | 6,193 | 6,763 | 7,371 | 8,035 | 8,758 | 9,546 | 10,405 |
| growth % | 19.0 | 5.2 | (8.8) | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 839 | 1,061 | 865 | 992 | 1,084 | 1,181 | 1,287 | 1,403 | 1,530 |
| margin % | 13.0 | 15.6 | 14.0 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| less depreciation | (228) | (246) | (299) | (324) | (354) | (386) | (420) | (458) | (499) |
| EBIT | 610 | 815 | 565 | 668 | 730 | 795 | 867 | 945 | 1,030 |
| less tax on EBIT | (172) | (188) | (204) | (223) | (243) | (265) | |||
| NOPAT | 496 | 542 | 591 | 644 | 702 | 765 | |||
| add depreciation | 228 | 246 | 299 | 324 | 354 | 386 | 420 | 458 | 499 |
| less capex | (737) | (1,011) | (661) | (709) | (774) | (748) | (712) | (663) | (599) |
| less working-capital build | — | (26) | (29) | (31) | (34) | (37) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (103) | (112) | 122 | — | 96 | 200 | 321 | 464 | 629 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 91 | 171 | 248 | 322 | 393 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,491, dividends at 18.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 668 | 730 | 795 | 867 | 945 | 1,030 |
| Interest at 8.4% on debt | (209) | (209) | (209) | (209) | (209) | |
| Profit before tax | 520 | 586 | 658 | 736 | 821 | |
| Profit after tax | 412 | 387 | 436 | 489 | 547 | 610 |
| Dividends | (76) | (72) | (81) | (91) | (102) | (113) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 73 | (58) | (95) | (20) | 186 | 546 |
| Working capital | 289 | 315 | 344 | 375 | 409 | 446 |
| Net block and other assets | 8,186 | 8,606 | 8,969 | 9,260 | 9,465 | 9,565 |
| Debt | 2,491 | 2,491 | 2,491 | 2,491 | 2,491 | 2,491 |
| Equity | 3,883 | 4,198 | 4,552 | 4,950 | 5,395 | 5,892 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 714 | 793 | 878 | 971 | 1,072 | |
| Investing (capex) | (774) | (748) | (712) | (663) | (599) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (72) | (81) | (91) | (102) | (113) | |
| Net change in cash | (132) | (37) | 75 | 206 | 360 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (60) | 44 | 166 | 308 | 473 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 14.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹430 | (15.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.