Models
JK PAPER LIMITEDJKPAPERPaper Forest & Jute Products
₹134per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹134implied FY26 P/E 7.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.2×
Against CMP ₹414.35−67.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹75₹252
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹305₹445
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,085 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,620 |
| Enterprise value | 4,704 |
| less net debt | (2,279) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,425 |
| ÷ 18.13 crore shares | ₹134 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 142 | 162 | 186 | 215 | 252 |
| 10.50% | 121 | 138 | 158 | 181 | 210 |
| 11.00% | 104 | 118 | 134 | 153 | 176 |
| 11.50% | 88 | 100 | 114 | 130 | 148 |
| 12.00% | 75 | 85 | 96 | 110 | 125 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹414.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 60 · 132 · 210 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,437 | 6,659 | 6,718 | 7,076 | 7,465 | 7,876 | 8,309 | 8,766 | 9,248 |
| growth % | 62.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,978 | 1,616 | 928 | 907 | 956 | 1,008 | 1,064 | 1,122 | 1,184 |
| margin % | 30.7 | 24.3 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| less depreciation | (282) | (310) | (332) | (377) | (396) | (417) | (440) | (465) | (490) |
| EBIT | 1,696 | 1,306 | 596 | 530 | 560 | 591 | 623 | 657 | 694 |
| less tax on EBIT | (135) | (142) | (150) | (158) | (167) | (176) | |||
| NOPAT | 395 | 418 | 441 | 465 | 490 | 517 | |||
| add depreciation | 282 | 310 | 332 | 377 | 396 | 417 | 440 | 465 | 490 |
| less capex | (224) | (240) | (253) | (503) | (530) | (545) | (559) | (574) | (588) |
| less working-capital build | — | (57) | (60) | (64) | (67) | (71) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,538 | 1,136 | 360 | — | 226 | 253 | 282 | 314 | 349 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 215 | 216 | 218 | 218 | 218 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,436, dividends at 31.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 530 | 560 | 591 | 623 | 657 | 694 |
| Interest at 10.4% on debt | (253) | (253) | (253) | (253) | (253) | |
| Profit before tax | 307 | 337 | 370 | 404 | 440 | |
| Profit after tax | 266 | 229 | 252 | 276 | 301 | 328 |
| Dividends | (85) | (73) | (80) | (88) | (96) | (104) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 157 | 122 | 106 | 111 | 141 | 196 |
| Working capital | 1,039 | 1,096 | 1,157 | 1,220 | 1,288 | 1,358 |
| Net block and other assets | 9,342 | 9,476 | 9,603 | 9,722 | 9,831 | 9,929 |
| Debt | 2,436 | 2,436 | 2,436 | 2,436 | 2,436 | 2,436 |
| Equity | 5,786 | 5,942 | 6,114 | 6,302 | 6,508 | 6,732 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 567 | 609 | 653 | 699 | 748 | |
| Investing (capex) | (530) | (545) | (559) | (574) | (588) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (73) | (80) | (88) | (96) | (104) | |
| Net change in cash | (36) | (16) | 6 | 29 | 55 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 37 | 64 | 93 | 125 | 160 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 12.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹134 | (67.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.