Models
JK TYRE & INDUSTRIES LTDJKTYREAuto Components
₹233per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹233implied FY26 P/E 10.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹355.00−34.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3192%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹128₹445
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹351₹612
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 874 |
| PV of terminal value | 10,360 |
| Enterprise value | 11,233 |
| less net debt | (4,509) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,724 |
| ÷ 28.83 crore shares | ₹233 |
92% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 248 | 284 | 326 | 379 | 445 |
| 10.50% | 211 | 240 | 276 | 318 | 369 |
| 11.00% | 179 | 204 | 233 | 268 | 309 |
| 11.50% | 152 | 173 | 198 | 226 | 260 |
| 12.00% | 128 | 146 | 167 | 191 | 219 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹355.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 106 · 229 · 359 |
| Draws below the CMP | 89% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14,645 | 15,002 | 14,693 | 16,327 | 18,123 | 20,116 | 22,329 | 24,785 | 27,511 |
| growth % | 22.2 | 2.4 | (2.1) | 11.1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,236 | 2,050 | 1,567 | 1,886 | 2,102 | 2,333 | 2,590 | 2,875 | 3,191 |
| margin % | 8.4 | 13.7 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 |
| less depreciation | (407) | (437) | (456) | (472) | (526) | (583) | (648) | (719) | (798) |
| EBIT | 829 | 1,614 | 1,110 | 1,414 | 1,577 | 1,750 | 1,943 | 2,156 | 2,393 |
| less tax on EBIT | (365) | (407) | (452) | (501) | (556) | (618) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,049 | 1,170 | 1,299 | 1,441 | 1,600 | 1,776 | |||
| add depreciation | 407 | 437 | 456 | 472 | 526 | 583 | 648 | 719 | 798 |
| less capex | (463) | (774) | (639) | (1,424) | (1,577) | (1,488) | (1,360) | (1,186) | (957) |
| less working-capital build | — | (408) | (453) | (502) | (558) | (619) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 761 | 840 | 77 | — | (289) | (58) | 227 | 575 | 998 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (274) | (50) | 175 | 399 | 624 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,746, dividends at 10.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,414 | 1,577 | 1,750 | 1,943 | 2,156 | 2,393 |
| Interest at 9% on debt | (427) | (427) | (427) | (427) | (427) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,150 | 1,323 | 1,515 | 1,729 | 1,966 | |
| Profit after tax | 776 | 853 | 982 | 1,124 | 1,283 | 1,459 |
| Dividends | (82) | (90) | (104) | (119) | (136) | (155) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 237 | (460) | (939) | (1,148) | (1,026) | (500) |
| Working capital | 3,713 | 4,120 | 4,573 | 5,075 | 5,633 | 6,252 |
| Net block and other assets | 12,047 | 13,098 | 14,002 | 14,714 | 15,181 | 15,341 |
| Debt | 4,746 | 4,746 | 4,746 | 4,746 | 4,746 | 4,746 |
| Equity | 6,060 | 6,823 | 7,700 | 8,706 | 9,853 | 11,157 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 971 | 1,112 | 1,270 | 1,444 | 1,638 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,577) | (1,488) | (1,360) | (1,186) | (957) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (90) | (104) | (119) | (136) | (155) | |
| Net change in cash | (696) | (479) | (209) | 122 | 526 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (606) | (375) | (90) | 258 | 681 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 11.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹233 | (34.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.