Models
JOSTS ENGINEERING CO.LTD.BSE 505750Industrial Manufacturing
₹460per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹460implied FY26 P/E 15.2× · EV/EBITDA 11.2×
Against CMP ₹227.65+102.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹361₹658
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹188₹396
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 155 |
| PV of terminal value | 394 |
| Enterprise value | 549 |
| less net debt | (6) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 543 |
| ÷ 1.18 crore shares | ₹460 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 475 | 508 | 548 | 597 | 658 |
| 10.50% | 440 | 468 | 500 | 539 | 587 |
| 11.00% | 410 | 433 | 460 | 492 | 531 |
| 11.50% | 384 | 404 | 426 | 453 | 485 |
| 12.00% | 361 | 378 | 397 | 420 | 446 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹227.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 387 · 457 · 544 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 172 | 187 | 239 | 247 | 254 | 262 | 270 | 278 | 286 |
| growth % | 38.6 | 8.7 | 27.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 14 | 18 | 29 | 49 | 51 | 52 | 54 | 55 | 57 |
| margin % | 8.3 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (3) | (4) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) |
| EBIT | 11 | 15 | 25 | 43 | 44 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 50 |
| less tax on EBIT | (7) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |||
| NOPAT | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 42 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| less capex | (1) | (5) | (2) | 0 | 0 | (2) | (4) | (6) | (9) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 10 | (3) | 3 | — | 41 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 38 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 39 | 35 | 31 | 27 | 24 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 8, dividends at 4.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 43 | 44 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 50 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 44 | 45 | 46 | 48 | 49 | |
| Profit after tax | 31 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 |
| Dividends | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 41 | 80 | 117 | 153 | 189 |
| Working capital | 66 | 68 | 70 | 72 | 75 | 77 |
| Net block and other assets | 145 | 138 | 134 | 131 | 130 | 132 |
| Debt | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Equity | 157 | 192 | 228 | 265 | 303 | 342 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 41 | 42 | 43 | 45 | 46 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (2) | (4) | (6) | (9) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | 39 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 35 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 41 | 40 | 39 | 38 | 37 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 19.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹460 | 102.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.