Models
JSW ENERGY LIMITEDJSWENERGYPower
₹1,609per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,609implied FY26 P/E 143.5× · EV/EBITDA 36.7×
Against CMP ₹526.45+205.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies9.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,097₹2,632
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹428₹617
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 47,983 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,18,491 |
| Enterprise value | 3,66,474 |
| less net debt | (71,704) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,94,770 |
| ÷ 183.24 crore shares | ₹1,609 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,680 | 1,853 | 2,061 | 2,315 | 2,632 |
| 10.50% | 1,500 | 1,644 | 1,814 | 2,018 | 2,267 |
| 11.00% | 1,346 | 1,467 | 1,609 | 1,776 | 1,976 |
| 11.50% | 1,213 | 1,316 | 1,435 | 1,574 | 1,738 |
| 12.00% | 1,097 | 1,186 | 1,287 | 1,404 | 1,540 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹526.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,010 · 1,589 · 2,380 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.49 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,332 | 11,486 | 11,745 | 18,901 | 24,571 | 31,943 | 41,526 | 53,984 | 70,179 |
| growth % | 26.5 | 11.2 | 2.3 | 60.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 3,402 | 5,382 | 5,221 | 9,999 | 12,998 | 16,898 | 21,967 | 28,557 | 37,124 |
| margin % | 32.9 | 46.9 | 44.4 | 52.9 | 52.9 | 52.9 | 52.9 | 52.9 | 52.9 |
| less depreciation | (1,169) | (1,633) | (1,655) | (3,185) | (4,153) | (5,398) | (7,018) | (9,123) | (11,860) |
| EBIT | 2,233 | 3,748 | 3,566 | 6,814 | 8,846 | 11,499 | 14,949 | 19,434 | 25,264 |
| less tax on EBIT | 2,678 | 3,476 | 4,519 | 5,875 | 7,638 | 9,929 | |||
| NOPAT | 9,492 | 12,322 | 16,019 | 20,824 | 27,072 | 35,193 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,169 | 1,633 | 1,655 | 3,185 | 4,153 | 5,398 | 7,018 | 9,123 | 11,860 |
| less capex | (4,236) | (8,033) | (6,709) | (10,310) | (13,391) | (14,676) | (15,526) | (15,566) | (14,232) |
| less working-capital build | — | (754) | (980) | (1,275) | (1,657) | (2,154) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (2,152) | (1,799) | (2,870) | — | 2,329 | 5,761 | 11,041 | 18,972 | 30,667 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,211 | 4,926 | 8,506 | 13,167 | 19,174 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 75,846, dividends at 16.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6,814 | 8,846 | 11,499 | 14,949 | 19,434 | 25,264 |
| Interest at 9.3% on debt | (7,054) | (7,054) | (7,054) | (7,054) | (7,054) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,792 | 4,446 | 7,896 | 12,380 | 18,211 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,239 | 2,496 | 6,193 | 10,999 | 17,246 | 25,367 |
| Dividends | (364) | (404) | (1,003) | (1,782) | (2,794) | (4,110) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4,142 | (3,759) | (8,827) | (9,394) | (3,041) | 13,691 |
| Working capital | 2,512 | 3,266 | 4,246 | 5,521 | 7,177 | 9,331 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,17,528 | 1,26,767 | 1,36,044 | 1,44,553 | 1,50,996 | 1,53,368 |
| Debt | 75,846 | 75,846 | 75,846 | 75,846 | 75,846 | 75,846 |
| Equity | 33,577 | 35,669 | 40,859 | 50,076 | 64,528 | 85,786 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 5,895 | 10,611 | 16,742 | 24,712 | 35,074 | |
| Investing (capex) | (13,391) | (14,676) | (15,526) | (15,566) | (14,232) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (404) | (1,003) | (1,782) | (2,794) | (4,110) | |
| Net change in cash | (7,901) | (5,069) | (566) | 6,352 | 16,732 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (7,497) | (4,065) | 1,215 | 9,146 | 20,841 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 52.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,609 | 205.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.