Models
JSW INFRASTRUCTURE LTDJSWINFRATransport Infrastructure
₹137per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹137implied FY26 P/E 19.2× · EV/EBITDA 14.8×
Against CMP ₹343.50−60.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies44.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3191%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹94₹223
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹233₹356
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,390 |
| PV of terminal value | 33,976 |
| Enterprise value | 37,366 |
| less net debt | (5,612) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 31,754 |
| ÷ 232.35 crore shares | ₹137 |
91% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 143 | 157 | 175 | 196 | 223 |
| 10.50% | 127 | 140 | 154 | 171 | 192 |
| 11.00% | 115 | 125 | 137 | 151 | 168 |
| 11.50% | 103 | 112 | 122 | 134 | 148 |
| 12.00% | 94 | 101 | 110 | 120 | 131 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹343.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 95 · 135 · 188 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.59 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,763 | 4,476 | 5,361 | 6,434 | 7,720 | 9,265 | 11,117 | 13,341 |
| growth % | — | 19.0 | 19.8 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,965 | 2,262 | 2,524 | 3,030 | 3,636 | 4,364 | 5,236 | 6,284 |
| margin % | 52.2 | 50.5 | 47.1 | 47.1 | 47.1 | 47.1 | 47.1 | 47.1 |
| less depreciation | (436) | (547) | (614) | (740) | (888) | (1,065) | (1,279) | (1,534) |
| EBIT | 1,528 | 1,716 | 1,910 | 2,290 | 2,748 | 3,298 | 3,958 | 4,749 |
| less tax on EBIT | (332) | (399) | (478) | (574) | (689) | (826) | ||
| NOPAT | 1,578 | 1,892 | 2,270 | 2,724 | 3,269 | 3,923 | ||
| add depreciation | 436 | 547 | 614 | 740 | 888 | 1,065 | 1,279 | 1,534 |
| less capex | (249) | (2,076) | (2,492) | (2,992) | (2,959) | (2,793) | (2,443) | (1,841) |
| less working-capital build | — | (166) | (199) | (239) | (287) | (345) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,555 | 25 | — | (526) | (0) | 757 | 1,817 | 3,272 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (499) | (0) | 583 | 1,261 | 2,045 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 6,410, dividends at 11% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,910 | 2,290 | 2,748 | 3,298 | 3,958 | 4,749 |
| Interest at 6.9% on debt | (442) | (442) | (442) | (442) | (442) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,848 | 2,306 | 2,856 | 3,516 | 4,307 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,523 | 1,527 | 1,905 | 2,359 | 2,904 | 3,558 |
| Dividends | (168) | (168) | (210) | (259) | (319) | (391) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 798 | (262) | (837) | (704) | 428 | 2,943 |
| Working capital | 831 | 998 | 1,197 | 1,436 | 1,724 | 2,068 |
| Net block and other assets | 18,729 | 20,981 | 23,052 | 24,780 | 25,945 | 26,251 |
| Debt | 6,410 | 6,410 | 6,410 | 6,410 | 6,410 | 6,410 |
| Equity | 11,693 | 13,051 | 14,747 | 16,846 | 19,431 | 22,597 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,100 | 2,593 | 3,185 | 3,895 | 4,747 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,992) | (2,959) | (2,793) | (2,443) | (1,841) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (168) | (210) | (259) | (319) | (391) | |
| Net change in cash | (1,059) | (575) | 132 | 1,133 | 2,515 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (891) | (366) | 392 | 1,452 | 2,906 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20% | 47.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹137 | (60.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.