Models
JSW STEEL LIMITEDJSWSTEELFerrous Metals
₹2,258per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,258implied FY26 P/E 22.2× · EV/EBITDA 12.9×
Against CMP ₹1,265.00+78.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(4.9)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,686₹3,399
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,073₹1,351
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,36,373 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,70,855 |
| Enterprise value | 6,07,228 |
| less net debt | (56,276) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,50,952 |
| ÷ 244.00 crore shares | ₹2,258 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,341 | 2,533 | 2,764 | 3,046 | 3,399 |
| 10.50% | 2,139 | 2,299 | 2,488 | 2,715 | 2,992 |
| 11.00% | 1,967 | 2,101 | 2,258 | 2,443 | 2,666 |
| 11.50% | 1,817 | 1,932 | 2,064 | 2,218 | 2,400 |
| 12.00% | 1,686 | 1,785 | 1,897 | 2,027 | 2,178 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,265.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,776 · 2,240 · 2,806 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,65,960 | 1,75,006 | 1,68,824 | 1,85,470 | 2,04,017 | 2,24,419 | 2,46,861 | 2,71,547 | 2,98,701 |
| growth % | 13.4 | 5.5 | (3.5) | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| EBITDA | 19,138 | 28,825 | 22,415 | 47,180 | 51,820 | 57,002 | 62,703 | 68,973 | 75,870 |
| margin % | 11.5 | 16.5 | 13.3 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 |
| less depreciation | (7,474) | (8,172) | (9,309) | (9,601) | (10,609) | (11,670) | (12,837) | (14,120) | (15,532) |
| EBIT | 11,664 | 20,653 | 13,106 | 37,579 | 41,211 | 45,333 | 49,866 | 54,852 | 60,338 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4,735) | (5,193) | (5,712) | (6,283) | (6,911) | (7,603) | |||
| NOPAT | 32,844 | 36,019 | 39,621 | 43,583 | 47,941 | 52,735 | |||
| add depreciation | 7,474 | 8,172 | 9,309 | 9,601 | 10,609 | 11,670 | 12,837 | 14,120 | 15,532 |
| less capex | (14,324) | (15,801) | (12,694) | (14,654) | (16,117) | (16,798) | (17,453) | (18,071) | (18,639) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2,930) | (3,223) | (3,546) | (3,900) | (4,290) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 8,999 | (3,723) | 8,205 | — | 27,580 | 31,269 | 35,421 | 40,090 | 45,338 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 26,178 | 26,738 | 27,287 | 27,823 | 28,347 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 95,532, dividends at 3.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 37,579 | 41,211 | 45,333 | 49,866 | 54,852 | 60,338 |
| Interest at 9.5% on debt | (9,076) | (9,076) | (9,076) | (9,076) | (9,076) | |
| Profit before tax | 32,136 | 36,257 | 40,790 | 45,777 | 51,262 | |
| Profit after tax | 22,316 | 28,087 | 31,689 | 35,651 | 40,009 | 44,803 |
| Dividends | (685) | (871) | (982) | (1,105) | (1,240) | (1,389) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 39,256 | 58,033 | 80,388 | 1,06,772 | 1,37,689 | 1,73,706 |
| Working capital | 29,370 | 32,301 | 35,524 | 39,070 | 42,970 | 47,261 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,01,050 | 2,06,558 | 2,11,686 | 2,16,302 | 2,20,253 | 2,23,360 |
| Debt | 95,532 | 95,532 | 95,532 | 95,532 | 95,532 | 95,532 |
| Equity | 1,05,475 | 1,32,691 | 1,63,397 | 1,97,943 | 2,36,712 | 2,80,126 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 35,765 | 40,135 | 44,942 | 50,229 | 56,045 | |
| Investing (capex) | (16,117) | (16,798) | (17,453) | (18,071) | (18,639) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (871) | (982) | (1,105) | (1,240) | (1,389) | |
| Net change in cash | 18,777 | 22,355 | 26,383 | 30,917 | 36,017 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 19,648 | 23,337 | 27,489 | 32,158 | 37,406 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10% | 25.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,258 | 78.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.