Models
JTL INDUSTRIES LIMITEDJTLINDIndustrial Products
₹11per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹11implied FY26 P/E 3.5× · EV/EBITDA 4.1×
Against CMP ₹88.51−87.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31116%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹5₹22
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹40₹94
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (100) |
| PV of terminal value | 732 |
| Enterprise value | 633 |
| less net debt | (209) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 424 |
| ÷ 39.31 crore shares | ₹11 |
116% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 11 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 22 |
| 10.50% | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 18 |
| 11.00% | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 |
| 11.50% | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| 12.00% | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹88.51; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1 · 11 · 19 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,550 | 2,040 | 1,916 | 2,136 | 2,382 | 2,656 | 2,961 | 3,302 | 3,682 |
| growth % | 58.8 | 31.6 | (6.1) | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 128 | 152 | — | 154 | 172 | 191 | 213 | 238 | 265 |
| margin % | 8.3 | 7.5 | — | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (6) | — | (21) | (24) | (27) | (30) | (33) | (37) |
| EBIT | 124 | 147 | — | 134 | 148 | 165 | 184 | 205 | 228 |
| less tax on EBIT | (32) | (35) | (39) | (44) | (49) | (54) | |||
| NOPAT | 102 | 113 | 125 | 140 | 156 | 174 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 6 | — | 21 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 33 | 37 |
| less capex | (19) | (103) | (178) | (146) | (162) | (143) | (118) | (86) | (44) |
| less working-capital build | — | (62) | (69) | (77) | (86) | (96) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (14) | (125) | (424) | — | (88) | (61) | (26) | 17 | 71 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (83) | (52) | (20) | 12 | 44 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 244, dividends at 2.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 134 | 148 | 165 | 184 | 205 | 228 |
| Interest at 4.6% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 136 | 153 | 172 | 193 | 217 | |
| Profit after tax | 98 | 104 | 117 | 131 | 147 | 165 |
| Dividends | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 35 | (64) | (136) | (174) | (170) | (112) |
| Working capital | 541 | 604 | 673 | 750 | 836 | 932 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,420 | 1,558 | 1,675 | 1,764 | 1,817 | 1,824 |
| Debt | 244 | 244 | 244 | 244 | 244 | 244 |
| Equity | 1,522 | 1,623 | 1,737 | 1,865 | 2,009 | 2,170 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 66 | 74 | 84 | 94 | 106 | |
| Investing (capex) | (162) | (143) | (118) | (86) | (44) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | (99) | (72) | (38) | 5 | 58 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (96) | (69) | (35) | 8 | 62 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 7.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹11 | (87.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.