Models
JUBILANT AGRI N CON PRO LJUBLCPLChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹1,189per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,189implied FY26 P/E 13.9× · EV/EBITDA 9.5×
Against CMP ₹2,122.60−44.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹897₹1,774
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,460₹2,790
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 322 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,501 |
| Enterprise value | 1,823 |
| less net debt | (22) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,801 |
| ÷ 1.52 crore shares | ₹1,189 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,231 | 1,329 | 1,448 | 1,593 | 1,774 |
| 10.50% | 1,128 | 1,210 | 1,307 | 1,423 | 1,565 |
| 11.00% | 1,039 | 1,108 | 1,189 | 1,284 | 1,398 |
| 11.50% | 963 | 1,022 | 1,090 | 1,169 | 1,262 |
| 12.00% | 897 | 947 | 1,005 | 1,071 | 1,149 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,122.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 800 · 1,170 · 1,542 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,561 | 1,891 | 2,288 | 2,769 | 3,350 | 4,054 | 4,905 |
| growth % | — | 21.1 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| EBITDA | 146 | 193 | 233 | 282 | 342 | 413 | 500 |
| margin % | 9.3 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (16) | (18) | (21) | (25) | (30) | (36) | (44) |
| EBIT | 130 | 175 | 213 | 257 | 312 | 377 | 456 |
| less tax on EBIT | (45) | (55) | (66) | (80) | (97) | (117) | |
| NOPAT | 130 | 158 | 191 | 231 | 280 | 339 | |
| add depreciation | 16 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 36 | 44 |
| less capex | (35) | (40) | (48) | (51) | (53) | (54) | (53) |
| less working-capital build | — | (87) | (105) | (127) | (153) | (186) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 94 | — | 44 | 60 | 82 | 109 | 145 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 42 | 52 | 63 | 76 | 90 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 28, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 175 | 213 | 257 | 312 | 377 | 456 |
| Interest at 15.8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 208 | 253 | 307 | 373 | 452 | |
| Profit after tax | 128 | 155 | 188 | 228 | 277 | 336 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 46 | 104 | 182 | 288 | 429 |
| Working capital | 412 | 498 | 603 | 730 | 883 | 1,069 |
| Net block and other assets | 518 | 545 | 572 | 595 | 612 | 621 |
| Debt | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Equity | 460 | 615 | 803 | 1,031 | 1,308 | 1,643 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 89 | 108 | 132 | 160 | 194 | |
| Investing (capex) | (48) | (51) | (53) | (54) | (53) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 41 | 57 | 78 | 106 | 141 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 41 | 57 | 78 | 106 | 141 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,189 | (44.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.