Models
JUBILANT FOODWORKS LTDJUBLFOODLeisure Services
₹177per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹177implied FY26 P/E 26.9× · EV/EBITDA 7.2×
Against CMP ₹470.25−62.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies42.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹131₹267
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹409₹668
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,190 |
| PV of terminal value | 10,080 |
| Enterprise value | 13,271 |
| less net debt | (1,616) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,655 |
| ÷ 65.98 crore shares | ₹177 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 183 | 198 | 217 | 239 | 267 |
| 10.50% | 167 | 180 | 195 | 213 | 235 |
| 11.00% | 154 | 164 | 177 | 191 | 209 |
| 11.50% | 142 | 151 | 161 | 173 | 188 |
| 12.00% | 131 | 139 | 148 | 158 | 170 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹470.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 111 · 174 · 251 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.42 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,158 | 5,654 | 8,142 | 9,513 | 11,130 | 13,022 | 15,235 | 17,825 | 20,856 |
| growth % | 17.3 | 9.6 | 44.0 | 16.8 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,152 | 1,314 | 1,568 | 1,854 | 2,170 | 2,539 | 2,971 | 3,476 | 4,067 |
| margin % | 22.3 | 23.2 | 19.3 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| less depreciation | (486) | (598) | (807) | (959) | (1,124) | (1,315) | (1,539) | (1,800) | (2,106) |
| EBIT | 666 | 716 | 761 | 895 | 1,046 | 1,224 | 1,432 | 1,676 | 1,960 |
| less tax on EBIT | (260) | (303) | (355) | (415) | (486) | (569) | |||
| NOPAT | 636 | 743 | 869 | 1,017 | 1,190 | 1,392 | |||
| add depreciation | 486 | 598 | 807 | 959 | 1,124 | 1,315 | 1,539 | 1,800 | 2,106 |
| less capex | (793) | (842) | (863) | (999) | (1,169) | (1,420) | (1,723) | (2,088) | (2,528) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 233 | 168 | 805 | — | 698 | 764 | 832 | 902 | 971 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 663 | 654 | 641 | 626 | 607 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,745, dividends at 18.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 895 | 1,046 | 1,224 | 1,432 | 1,676 | 1,960 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (140) | (140) | (140) | (140) | (140) | |
| Profit before tax | 907 | 1,084 | 1,293 | 1,536 | 1,821 | |
| Profit after tax | 428 | 644 | 770 | 918 | 1,091 | 1,293 |
| Dividends | (81) | (122) | (146) | (173) | (206) | (244) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 129 | 606 | 1,126 | 1,686 | 2,282 | 2,910 |
| Working capital | (344) | (344) | (344) | (344) | (344) | (344) |
| Net block and other assets | 9,776 | 9,820 | 9,925 | 10,109 | 10,397 | 10,819 |
| Debt | 1,745 | 1,745 | 1,745 | 1,745 | 1,745 | 1,745 |
| Equity | 2,388 | 2,910 | 3,534 | 4,278 | 5,163 | 6,211 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,768 | 2,085 | 2,456 | 2,891 | 3,399 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,169) | (1,420) | (1,723) | (2,088) | (2,528) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (122) | (146) | (173) | (206) | (244) | |
| Net change in cash | 477 | 520 | 560 | 597 | 627 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 599 | 665 | 733 | 803 | 871 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17% | 19.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹177 | (62.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.