Models
JUBILANT INGREVIA LIMITEDJUBLINGREAChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹188per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹188implied FY26 P/E 9.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.5×
Against CMP ₹655.00−71.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹135₹293
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹537₹795
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 752 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,842 |
| Enterprise value | 3,594 |
| less net debt | (603) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,991 |
| ÷ 15.94 crore shares | ₹188 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 195 | 213 | 234 | 260 | 293 |
| 10.50% | 177 | 191 | 209 | 230 | 255 |
| 11.00% | 161 | 173 | 188 | 205 | 225 |
| 11.50% | 147 | 158 | 170 | 184 | 201 |
| 12.00% | 135 | 144 | 154 | 166 | 180 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹655.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 135 · 186 · 244 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,773 | 4,136 | 4,178 | 4,388 | 4,607 | 4,838 | 5,080 | 5,334 | 5,600 |
| growth % | (3.6) | (13.3) | 1.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 547 | 421 | 519 | 554 | 581 | 610 | 640 | 672 | 706 |
| margin % | 11.5 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| less depreciation | (122) | (136) | (158) | (175) | (184) | (194) | (203) | (213) | (224) |
| EBIT | 425 | 285 | 361 | 379 | 396 | 416 | 437 | 459 | 482 |
| less tax on EBIT | (94) | (98) | (103) | (108) | (114) | (119) | |||
| NOPAT | 285 | 298 | 313 | 329 | 345 | 362 | |||
| add depreciation | 122 | 136 | 158 | 175 | 184 | 194 | 203 | 213 | 224 |
| less capex | (481) | (568) | (366) | (299) | (313) | (305) | (295) | (283) | (269) |
| less working-capital build | — | (36) | (38) | (40) | (42) | (44) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (19) | (138) | 142 | — | 133 | 164 | 197 | 234 | 274 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 126 | 140 | 152 | 162 | 171 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 792, dividends at 28.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 379 | 396 | 416 | 437 | 459 | 482 |
| Interest at 6.3% on debt | (50) | (50) | (50) | (50) | (50) | |
| Profit before tax | 346 | 366 | 387 | 409 | 432 | |
| Profit after tax | 278 | 260 | 275 | 291 | 307 | 325 |
| Dividends | (79) | (74) | (78) | (83) | (88) | (93) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 188 | 210 | 258 | 335 | 443 | 587 |
| Working capital | 721 | 757 | 795 | 835 | 876 | 920 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,574 | 4,703 | 4,814 | 4,906 | 4,975 | 5,020 |
| Debt | 792 | 792 | 792 | 792 | 792 | 792 |
| Equity | 3,126 | 3,312 | 3,509 | 3,717 | 3,937 | 4,169 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 409 | 431 | 455 | 479 | 505 | |
| Investing (capex) | (313) | (305) | (295) | (283) | (269) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (74) | (78) | (83) | (88) | (93) | |
| Net change in cash | 21 | 48 | 77 | 109 | 144 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 95 | 126 | 160 | 196 | 236 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 12.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹188 | (71.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.