Models
JUBILANT PHARMOVA LTDJUBLPHARMAPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹160per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹160implied FY26 P/E 7.2× · EV/EBITDA 3.7×
Against CMP ₹1,025.10−84.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31123%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹59₹362
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹786₹1,185
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (1,025) |
| PV of terminal value | 5,515 |
| Enterprise value | 4,490 |
| less net debt | (1,952) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,538 |
| ÷ 15.90 crore shares | ₹160 |
123% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 172 | 207 | 248 | 299 | 362 |
| 10.50% | 137 | 166 | 200 | 241 | 290 |
| 11.00% | 107 | 131 | 160 | 193 | 233 |
| 11.50% | 81 | 102 | 126 | 154 | 186 |
| 12.00% | 59 | 77 | 97 | 120 | 148 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,025.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 19 · 155 · 303 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.35 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,282 | 6,703 | 7,235 | 8,280 | 9,480 | 10,855 | 12,429 | 14,231 | 16,294 |
| growth % | 3.7 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 14.4 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 719 | 732 | 1,533 | 1,201 | 1,375 | 1,574 | 1,802 | 2,063 | 2,363 |
| margin % | 11.5 | 10.9 | 21.2 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| less depreciation | (554) | (382) | (369) | (440) | (502) | (575) | (659) | (754) | (864) |
| EBIT | 165 | 350 | 1,165 | 760 | 872 | 999 | 1,143 | 1,309 | 1,499 |
| less tax on EBIT | (268) | (308) | (353) | (404) | (462) | (529) | |||
| NOPAT | 492 | 564 | 646 | 740 | 847 | 970 | |||
| add depreciation | 554 | 382 | 369 | 440 | 502 | 575 | 659 | 754 | 864 |
| less capex | (814) | (898) | (1,116) | (1,449) | (1,659) | (1,597) | (1,483) | (1,301) | (1,036) |
| less working-capital build | — | (155) | (177) | (203) | (232) | (266) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (154) | 74 | (44) | — | (747) | (553) | (287) | 67 | 531 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (709) | (473) | (221) | 47 | 332 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,220, dividends at 19.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 760 | 872 | 999 | 1,143 | 1,309 | 1,499 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (241) | (241) | (241) | (241) | (241) | |
| Profit before tax | 631 | 757 | 902 | 1,068 | 1,258 | |
| Profit after tax | 399 | 408 | 490 | 584 | 691 | 814 |
| Dividends | (80) | (81) | (97) | (116) | (137) | (162) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,267 | 283 | (524) | (1,084) | (1,310) | (1,097) |
| Working capital | 1,066 | 1,221 | 1,398 | 1,601 | 1,834 | 2,100 |
| Net block and other assets | 13,189 | 14,346 | 15,368 | 16,192 | 16,739 | 16,912 |
| Debt | 3,220 | 3,220 | 3,220 | 3,220 | 3,220 | 3,220 |
| Equity | 7,096 | 7,422 | 7,815 | 8,282 | 8,836 | 9,487 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 756 | 888 | 1,039 | 1,213 | 1,411 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,659) | (1,597) | (1,483) | (1,301) | (1,036) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (81) | (97) | (116) | (137) | (162) | |
| Net change in cash | (985) | (807) | (560) | (226) | 213 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (903) | (709) | (443) | (89) | 375 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14.5% | 14.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹160 | (84.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.