Models
JULLUNDUR MOT AGENCY LTDJMAAuto Components
₹107per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹107implied FY26 P/E 7.7× · EV/EBITDA 7.1×
Against CMP ₹94.30+14.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹84₹154
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹70₹104
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 55 |
| PV of terminal value | 178 |
| Enterprise value | 234 |
| less net debt | 12 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 246 |
| ÷ 2.28 crore shares | ₹107 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 111 | 119 | 128 | 139 | 154 |
| 10.50% | 103 | 109 | 117 | 126 | 137 |
| 11.00% | 96 | 101 | 107 | 115 | 124 |
| 11.50% | 90 | 94 | 100 | 106 | 113 |
| 12.00% | 84 | 88 | 93 | 98 | 104 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹94.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 71 · 107 · 140 |
| Draws below the CMP | 32% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 503 | 534 | 556 | 622 | 697 | 780 | 874 | 979 | 1,096 |
| growth % | 15.0 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 32 | 29 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 46 | 52 | 58 |
| margin % | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 31 | 28 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 56 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (14) | |||
| NOPAT | 24 | 27 | 30 | 33 | 37 | 42 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (5) | (1) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | (15) | (17) | (19) | (22) | (24) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (2) | 11 | (2) | — | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 15.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 32 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 56 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 36 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 56 | |
| Profit after tax | 30 | 27 | 30 | 33 | 37 | 42 |
| Dividends | (5) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 12 | 20 | 28 | 37 | 47 | 57 |
| Working capital | 128 | 144 | 161 | 180 | 202 | 226 |
| Net block and other assets | 213 | 212 | 211 | 211 | 211 | 212 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 278 | 300 | 325 | 353 | 385 | 420 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| Net change in cash | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 5.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹107 | 14.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.