Models
JUNIPER HOTELS LIMITEDJUNIPERLeisure Services
₹139per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹139implied FY26 P/E 18.6× · EV/EBITDA 10.0×
Against CMP ₹221.30−37.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies20.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹98₹220
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹189₹313
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 753 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,058 |
| Enterprise value | 3,811 |
| less net debt | (728) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,083 |
| ÷ 22.25 crore shares | ₹139 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 144 | 158 | 175 | 195 | 220 |
| 10.50% | 130 | 141 | 155 | 171 | 191 |
| 11.00% | 118 | 127 | 139 | 152 | 168 |
| 11.50% | 107 | 115 | 125 | 136 | 149 |
| 12.00% | 98 | 105 | 113 | 122 | 133 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹221.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 101 · 137 · 182 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 818 | 944 | 1,048 | 1,163 | 1,291 | 1,433 | 1,590 | 1,765 |
| growth % | — | 15.5 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 311 | 337 | 379 | 421 | 467 | 519 | 576 | 639 |
| margin % | 38.0 | 35.7 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 |
| less depreciation | (91) | (109) | (112) | (124) | (138) | (153) | (170) | (189) |
| EBIT | 220 | 227 | 267 | 297 | 329 | 365 | 406 | 450 |
| less tax on EBIT | (70) | (78) | (86) | (96) | (106) | (118) | ||
| NOPAT | 197 | 219 | 243 | 270 | 299 | 332 | ||
| add depreciation | 91 | 109 | 112 | 124 | 138 | 153 | 170 | 189 |
| less capex | (78) | (130) | (198) | (220) | (224) | (227) | (228) | (227) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 249 | 179 | — | 123 | 157 | 196 | 241 | 294 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 117 | 134 | 151 | 167 | 184 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 739, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 267 | 297 | 329 | 365 | 406 | 450 |
| Interest at 11% on debt | (81) | (81) | (81) | (81) | (81) | |
| Profit before tax | 215 | 248 | 284 | 324 | 369 | |
| Profit after tax | 142 | 159 | 183 | 210 | 239 | 272 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 11 | 74 | 171 | 307 | 488 | 722 |
| Working capital | (33) | (33) | (33) | (33) | (33) | (33) |
| Net block and other assets | 4,315 | 4,410 | 4,496 | 4,570 | 4,628 | 4,666 |
| Debt | 739 | 739 | 739 | 739 | 739 | 739 |
| Equity | 2,868 | 3,027 | 3,210 | 3,420 | 3,659 | 3,932 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 283 | 321 | 363 | 410 | 461 | |
| Investing (capex) | (220) | (224) | (227) | (228) | (227) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 64 | 97 | 136 | 181 | 234 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 64 | 97 | 136 | 181 | 234 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 36.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹139 | (37.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.