Models
JUPITER WAGONS LIMITEDJWLIndustrial Manufacturing
₹30per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹30implied FY26 P/E 8.0× · EV/EBITDA 5.8×
Against CMP ₹239.94−87.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31101%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹16₹58
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹236₹358
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (28) |
| PV of terminal value | 2,034 |
| Enterprise value | 2,006 |
| less net debt | (721) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,285 |
| ÷ 42.74 crore shares | ₹30 |
101% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 32 | 37 | 42 | 49 | 58 |
| 10.50% | 27 | 31 | 36 | 41 | 48 |
| 11.00% | 23 | 26 | 30 | 35 | 40 |
| 11.50% | 19 | 22 | 25 | 29 | 34 |
| 12.00% | 16 | 19 | 21 | 25 | 28 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹239.94; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 21 · 30 · 41 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.77 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,068 | 3,644 | 3,963 | 2,916 | 2,770 | 2,631 | 2,500 | 2,375 | 2,256 |
| growth % | 75.5 | 76.2 | 8.8 | (26.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 252 | 489 | 578 | 345 | 327 | 311 | 295 | 280 | 266 |
| margin % | 12.2 | 13.4 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| less depreciation | (25) | (28) | (54) | (67) | (64) | (61) | (57) | (55) | (52) |
| EBIT | 227 | 461 | 524 | 278 | 263 | 250 | 237 | 226 | 214 |
| less tax on EBIT | (86) | (82) | (78) | (74) | (70) | (67) | |||
| NOPAT | 191 | 181 | 172 | 164 | 155 | 148 | |||
| add depreciation | 25 | 28 | 54 | 67 | 64 | 61 | 57 | 55 | 52 |
| less capex | (73) | (125) | (508) | (535) | (507) | (379) | (263) | (158) | (62) |
| less working-capital build | — | 72 | 68 | 65 | 62 | 59 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | (144) | (404) | — | (190) | (78) | 23 | 114 | 196 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (180) | (67) | 18 | 79 | 122 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 938, dividends at 24.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 278 | 263 | 250 | 237 | 226 | 214 |
| Interest at 9.8% on debt | (92) | (92) | (92) | (92) | (92) | |
| Profit before tax | 171 | 158 | 146 | 134 | 122 | |
| Profit after tax | 171 | 118 | 109 | 100 | 92 | 84 |
| Dividends | (42) | (29) | (27) | (25) | (23) | (21) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 217 | (66) | (234) | (300) | (272) | (161) |
| Working capital | 1,438 | 1,366 | 1,298 | 1,233 | 1,171 | 1,113 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,058 | 3,501 | 3,820 | 4,026 | 4,129 | 4,139 |
| Debt | 938 | 938 | 938 | 938 | 938 | 938 |
| Equity | 2,987 | 3,075 | 3,157 | 3,233 | 3,302 | 3,365 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 254 | 238 | 223 | 208 | 195 | |
| Investing (capex) | (507) | (379) | (263) | (158) | (62) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (29) | (27) | (25) | (23) | (21) | |
| Net change in cash | (283) | (169) | (65) | 28 | 112 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (253) | (142) | (41) | 51 | 133 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 11.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹30 | (87.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.